Who Really Cares?

Did you ever think the Dow would be at an all-time high and there’d be no fanfare? I’ve stated many times that not only is this the stealthiest rally in history but for those paying attention it’s the most hated. For the most part it proves a few things A) the world trips and stumbles but global desire for prosperity - to be like America - continues and B) even a pessimistic nation uses credit cards, buys food and is willing to spend on their health and beauty (you never want to get caught not looking your best when the world comes to an end - a major faux pas). 

Where are the tickertape parades? Where’s the joy and excitement about a brighter future? How come cab drivers in New York are still running over pedestrians and chasing other cars off the street instead of staying in the slow lane so they can trade stocks? 

I get all the reasons the market is hated and disagree with almost all of them. There is a legitimate fear of Fed money printing and US debt levels but timing when they trip into irreversible disasters is difficult and shouldn’t stop anyone from investing and building up a war chest for that day. In fact this gets to the heart of the matter - too many people are watching the rally from the sidelines. Market gyrations, Wall Street shenanigans, White House policies and the curmudgeon view of the world that comes along with an aging population. It all adds up to a party where too few people were invited.

The rub of course is you can invite yourself to this party. The elites can’t keep you out. Yes, they can and do spook the public at various times to get the masses involved after big run-ups and to use the professionals as a guide. 

I’m going to work on a piece that addresses the mistakes people make including many subscribers to my Hotline and Swing services. This is our best year in many areas including track record (the go-go years of dart-throwing notwithstanding) and accounts. Yet, a few people aren’t doing as well as they should and that bothers me. It’s why there was no early report as I had to address two issues last night. One subscriber that came on in March said he was losing money. I was floored. After reviewing his positions I saw a litany of investing mistakes that so many people make.

This all points to another reason why this rally has little fanfare - even people “in” the market aren’t all making a lot of money. 

What every would-be investor must understand is this should be a lifelong endeavor. The need to have instant winners or to sell on dips means you’ll always lose. I do have a trading service which is designed to generate cash but also help mitigate the urge to close long term holds at a loss or gain. In addition to the piece I’ll have a special conference call; if you’re interested let me knowCharles.payne@wstreet.com or touch base with your rep.

As for the Hotline service… here is the track record since March - I’m very proud of the results. 

Winners closed % gain: 11.9%, 12.3%, 70.0%, 27%, 26%, 1%, 16%, 31%, 6.7%, 30%, 16%, 25.5%, 17.3%, 21.3% 17%

Losers closed % loss: 16.5%, 18.0%, 1.7%, 12.3%
Open positions that are currently higher (most double digits) MX, UHAL, ELX, BEAM, WFT, VVUS, BEAV, CLR, SWFT, FDML, VFC, LZB, URI, TYC, OWW, KMX, TIF, DHI

Open positions lower (two double digits) ARII, TOL, OVTI, ELN

Open positions unchanged (most slightly higher) BRCM, DSX, MJN, IHG, LCC, GSK, DANG