It was almost like an add-on. “And now, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy … from Ohio,” said the sonorous voice at the Republican National Convention Tuesday in Milwaukee.
It’s more than just an afterthought that Vivek’s state was mentioned. The day before Donald Trump had tapped J.D. Vance to be his running mate. Vance is now a senator from Ohio. If Trump wins – and he’s certainly in good shape 110 days or so before the election – Ohio would need a new senator.
Vance has served two years of his 6-year term. If the Trump-Vance ticket does prevail, Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican but not necessarily himself a Trump fan, would choose someone to fill the seat and an election for permanent senator would take place in 2026. Given Ohio is now a reliably Republican state, whoever DeWine picks would have a leg up on winning the election in 2026 and keeping the job indefinitely.
So the pick is important, and the process will be delicate. DeWine will feel no obligation to provide a MAGA-approved nominee, but he also doesn’t want someone who will stand in the way of Trump administration progress. In fact, there is some speculation Vance was chosen over Florida Senator Marco Rubio because the Trump campaign thought it could get a better Senate appointment out of DeWine than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Ramaswamy may be the biggest national name who could be under consideration, but he may be too close to Trump for DeWine’s taste.
A better fit might be Mike Carey, U.S. Congressman from Columbus. Fox New recently talked up his potential chances and referenced that his name is in mix in Ohio because of the fact that he strikes the right balance of being a legitimate Ohio Republican in the DeWine-Rob Portman mode and presumably acceptable to Trump given Trump has endorsed him in the past.
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Carey replaced former Rep. Steve Stivers, who served for 20 years before leaving in 2021 to become head of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. He supported fellow Ohioan Jim Jordan for Speaker and has backed MAGA initiatives on Capitol Hill consistently. He can raise money, and he has a brand that would position him well for a re-election race in 2026.
With the national spotlight on Ohio after Trump’s pick of JD Vance to be his running mate, Carey may not seem like the obvious candidate now, but DeWine is unlikely to go with a candidate as vigorously pro-Trump as Ramaswamy, and other potential choices all have baggage of one kind or another.
State Sen. Matt Dolan, an executive with the Cleveland Guardians, won DeWine’s endorsement in the primary earlier this year to take on Sherrod Brown in this year’s US Senate race. But Dolan finished a distant and seemingly disappointing second behind Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno.
Three others – Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague – are all interested in taking over for DeWine, 77, who is term-limited out of the governor’s mansion in 2026 and plans to retire from politics.
He could pick a woman – Ohio has never been represented by one in the Senate. But the most likely candidate – Ohio Republican Party chairman Jane Timken – herself finished a distant fifth in the Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2022 and could have trouble holding the seat if she gets it.
He could pick Portman, of course. He has experience and he also endorsed and campaigned with Dolan earlier this year. But Portman would be unlikely to seek re-election – he retired in 2021 – which could throw the seat up for grabs and force an expensive and likely nasty primary process in what would be Trump’s second midterm election.
Or DeWine could appoint himself. Those around him say this is a long shot, and it also would not fulfill the goal of having someone who would retain the seat.
There is some indication the governor is thinking along the same lines. “One name to watch as a potential replacement for Trump’s now-VP pick JD Vance; Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio), who votes more like Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Sen. Rob Portman, but is also endorsed by Donald Trump,” tweeted Olivia Beavers of Politico earlier this week.
The decision is not upon DeWine yet. First, there’s an election for Trump to win. But if Trump and Vance do win and Ohio does need a new senator, Carey could be a pick that Trump and DeWine can agree on and who could keep the seat in Republican hands indefinitely.
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