Mainstream media and, in fact, all media have made a fundamental error in assessing the 2012 Presidential election.
We continually hear how a majority of people, supposed likely voters, disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy and even more people are disappointed in Obama’s role in the U.S. Federal budget deficit.
In addition, the “real” unemployment situation has everyone shaking their head, not to mention our deteriorating world status as a leading power.
If the election were predicated on all these facts alone, the Obama regime would be in serious trouble.
However, what most of my colleagues are missing regarding this complicated and convoluted campaign is that the end result will boil down to simple mathematics.
Let’s take a step back for a moment.
Four years ago, David Axelrod and his election team focused on the voters, or potential voters, who were most disillusioned with George W. Bush.
Practically speaking, little time was spent on trying to convert people to the Obama philosophy.
Instead, Axelrod and his associates showed young voters that Obama was “cool.” They demonstrated to black voters that Barack was one of them, and to women voters (preferably single mothers), they explained that Obama could feel their pain.
The rest of the economics reflected in the polls was totally irrelevant.
Axelrod and his team knew that if they were able to get the aforementioned people out to vote (the majority), they could win the election.
Fast-forward to the present-day and Axelrod is back in the same position once again. More than a year ago, he left the White House to begin the re-election campaign.
His goal, I believe, is to once again identify the Obama beneficiaries, and just like last time, utilize both technology and shoe-leather in order to make sure these “beneficiaries” vote.
Who are these likely voters that Axelrod is targeting?
Fox News watchers, Friday night cocktail partiers, or even the successful small businessman?
Axelrod will focus on the all-time high number of food stamp recipients, the people that are receiving unemployment benefits or those who have fallen off unemployment assistance and have now started to receive disability payments, and the majority who pay no income taxes.
In other words, those that benefit most from the public dole.
With both Obama and Joe Biden making the message loud and clear, Axelrod will also stress that any change in the current administration structure will rock the boat and disrupt the monthly check for all those receiving benefits.
Think about it.
If 51% of the voters are happy with the government’s socialism and 49% are opposed, no amount of voter polls, predictions, or projections will change the inevitable.
Economic pronouncements make good sound bites; however, reality suggests the guy who gives something for nothing is not going to be replaced by the guy who takes it all away.
That’s just simple mathematics.
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