On Tuesday, third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. revealed that he had selected Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. Her being a leftist activist who has supported Democratic candidates and causes ought to serve as a reminder that RFK Jr. had initially run as a Democratic primary challenger to President Joe Biden, before switching to an Independent last October. The campaigns from Biden and former President Donald Trump have both responded to the selection of Shanahan, and RFK Jr.'s own family members continue to speak out against him being in the race, especially since he could serve as a spoiler to Trump. What do the polls say?
One of the more recent and also more telling polls comes from Quinnipiac University. The poll, released on Wednesday, covered a wide range of topics, including the matchup between Trump and Biden. As a headline for the write-up mentioned in part, "Biden vs. Trump Too-Close-To-Call."
When it comes to Biden versus Trump, as deeply unpopular as Biden is, with just a 37 percent approval rating, he still leads Trump, 48 percent to 45 percent. When third-party candidates are factored in, though, Trump has 39 percent support to Biden's 38 percent. RFK Jr. receives 13 percent support.
"There is no clear leader in either of these matchups because the leads are within the margin of error," the write-up mentions.
That poll was conducted March 21-25, so right before Kennedy made his announcement about Shanahan. It's nevertheless fresh on everyone's mind. There were 1,569 adults, which included 1,407 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
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— Quinnipiac University Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) March 14, 2024
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A poll from The Economist/YouGov was also released on Wednesday, showing Trump with 44 percent support to Biden's 43 percent support among registered voters. Kennedy only has 3 percent support in such a poll, though.
That poll was conducted March 25-26 with 1,594 adults, including 1,415 registered voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Economist/YouGov, March 24-26
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) March 27, 2024
If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for...
Trump: 44%
Biden: 43%
(Among registered voters)https://t.co/Hs9BMeSqzO pic.twitter.com/AjqR7PatRR
RealClearPolling, which currently shows Trump holding a +1.0 lead over Biden, with 46.5 percent to his 45.5 percent, has also examined the race when Kennedy is factored in. Among the three candidates, Trump leads with 40.7 percent to Biden's 35.3 percent, while Kennedy has 12.3 percent support.
Included in those averages is the recently released poll from Harvard CAPS-Harris, which shows Trump leading with 43 percent support to Biden's 39 percent and Kennedy's 17 percent. That poll was conducted March 20-21, with 2,111 registered voters.
Earlier on Thursday, The Hill published the latest edition of The Memo from Niall Stanage, who highlighted how "RFK Jr. set to hurt Biden more than Trump — but it’s complicated." As the memo mentions, specifically about polling:
In the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, for example, Trump leads Biden in a one-on-one match-up by a negligible margin: roughly half a percentage point.
But the former president has a 2-point advantage over Biden when Kennedy is listed as an option.
The same pattern is seen in numerous state-level polls. An Emerson College poll in Michigan last month showed Trump up by 2 points without Kennedy’s name being listed, and by 4 points when it was. In Wisconsin, another Emerson poll had Trump expanding his lead to 4 points from 3 points when Kennedy was listed.
Stanage also mentions how Kennedy appeals more so to Democrats because of his name, with the issues he cares about, and when it comes to "disaffected Democrats." Then again, he's more popular with Republicans than Democrats, per that poll from The Economist/YouGov America mentioned above.
Democrats seem to be well aware of this and have hit Kennedy for it. As Brittany Sheehan at our sister site of RedState highlighted when covering a press call that Biden's reelection campaign held on Tuesday, "Yes, Democrats Are Panicking As Kennedy-Shanahan Ticket Threatens Biden's Reelection." Lt. Gov. Austin Davis (D-PA) even outright acknowledged Kennedy was "a spoiler."
Kennedy has not only faced harsh criticism from elected officials, but also from his own family members. Another RedState article, this one from Ben Kew, highlighted an interview that Rory Kennedy, RFK Jr.'s sister, gave with CNN.
"It is really about siphoning votes from Biden. The polls I am seeing Bobby is taking 70 percent of the votes from Biden and 30 percent from Trump. I feel strongly that this is the most important election of our lifetime," Rory claimed.
Rory and his other siblings even called their brother's campaign dangerous as they sought to distance themselves from him, in a statement shared by Kerry Kennedy over her X account.
Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today's announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country. @roryekennedy @joekennedy @KKT_Kennedy pic.twitter.com/WJfGwSxN1z
— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) October 9, 2023
The effort against Kennedy is a very real and brutal one. As we mentioned when covering the news about Shanahan, he had called out the DNC in an open letter last September, taking issue with the primary process. He had been denied Secret Service protection multiple times, despite how his uncle and father had been assassinated, and he himself had been targeted for an attack that his private security foiled. Picking his running mate isn't the only way in which Kennedy has made news this week, as he also called out the DNC and Nevada Secretary of State, Democrat Francisco Aguilar for invalidating 15,000 ballot signatures in the battleground state.
Perhaps this effort could backfire on Democrats though. Twitchy's Doug Powers, in a quoted repost of Law Professor Jonathan Turley, also highlighted the irony of how the supposedly "save democracy" party is going to great lengths to get rid of yet another candidate, after already trying to do so with Trump.
The "save democracy" party is working hard to ensure there's only one candidate on the ballot in November, because irony is not dead enough. https://t.co/re46A3l2vQ
— Doug Powers (@ThePowersThatBe) March 27, 2024
