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TCOT Poll: Owens Up Over Hoffman 48-46

Jillian Bandes
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But only 40% of precincts were reporting. I'm still holding out hope...

For nothing.

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Jillian Bandes

Jillian Bandes

Jillian Bandes is the National Political Reporter for Townhall.com

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Crispian Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 7:52 AM

you- "I think it was the constant assaults on this woman by Palin, Limbaugh, et al. that doomed her. In August, most voters weren't thinking about this. I think the late surge by Owens shows they resented all the interference by outsiders."

Me- Scozzafava was the candidate since at least late August. By October 13th, the Democrat was leading, just a few weeks before the election, and a week before Palin had anything to say about the race. You would have a point if the constant assaults had been occurring BEFORE the Democrat took the lead.

you- "I notice you are tossing out 'poor campaign' and 'lacking Charisma' as buzzwords now. No, it is NEVER radical reactionary politics that fail, it's the candidate's fault."

Me-...

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Careful with that axe, Eugene Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 7:12 AM

"you guys"? I think few (probably none) of us live in NY23 or had any hand in choosing their candidates. According to available polls, Scozzafava never had support of more than 35% of the people in the district (as far back as August).

She lost because she was a liberal candidate, unacceptable to the people of NY23. That's why about 45% of the people of that district voted for Hoffman, despite the political mess, his lacking charisma, and his poor campaign.

You're right that this seat "never should have been in play to start with." If party bosses hadn't chosen a liberal candidate, who polled low from the start, it wouldn't have been.

Me- Quite the contrary, I think it was the constant assaults on this woman by...

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Crispian Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 6:56 AM

"Republicans started trying to purge their own in the name of idealogical purity...

Probably this will go back to the Red column in 2010, but it never should have been in play to start with, and only was because you guys insisted in putting up an intolerant outsider as your candidate"

"you guys"? I think few (probably none) of us live in NY23 or had any hand in choosing their candidates. According to available polls, Scozzafava never had support of more than 35% of the people in the district (as far back as August).

She lost because she was a liberal candidate, unacceptable to the people of NY23. That's why about 45% of the people of that district voted for Hoffman, despite the political mess, his lacking charisma,...

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Careful with that axe, Eugene Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 6:24 AM

"Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS. In this political race Owens was actually the more conservative candidate over Scozzafava. It is just as likely that Owens would still have won if the conservative base stayed once again as they have been doing since 2006 in elections. Ultimately we will never know, but I am glad that this Democrat endorsing "Republican" DIABLO WITCH (I'd prefer another name that rhymnes with it) will never be a congressman."

Scozzafava was endorsed by the NRA and supported the Bush Tax Cuts...

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Careful with that axe, Eugene Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 6:18 AM

With most of the precients in...
...Hoffman is behind by 4269 votes. It really is hard to see how he could catch up with what is left to be counted. I still cannot get why 6000+ voters would vote for Scozzafava? This to me does not make any sense at all.

Me- It doesn't? It strikes me that these 6000 people were not going to let Captain Oxycotin and the Retarded Flight Attendent tell them who to vote for....

Dede was probably the only legitimate candidate. She had represented this area in the state assembly for years while Hoffman and Owens came in from the outside...

Bottom line, if the GOP wants to retake Congress, they can't do it by nominating extremists...

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Careful with that axe, Eugene Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 6:10 AM

"Nerve-wracking But Obama apparently thought this seat could be picked up easily. Yet, only after the Republican dropped out and endorsed the Democrat does it come out almost even. If the seat is lost, it can be picked up in 2 years, adding to the many other wins of 2010."

Me- Really, you know what Obama was thinking? Actually, Obama probably didn't pay any attention to this race until the Republicans started trying to purge their own in the name of idealogical purity...

Probably this will go back to the Red column in 2010, but it never should have been in play to start with, and only was because you guys insisted in putting up an intolerant outsider as your candidate...

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 2:26 AM

...likewise I have enjoyed your posts and analysis. I especially like the following:

"What I do know is that
1. Dede would never have won given her track record.
2. It is better to have a Democrat win than a turncoat like Dede win and give the Democrats cover.
3. Without Sarah Palin there would have been no attention paid to this race and Owens would have won big."

Totally agree, and yes I can sympathize with wanting a new conservative party, but Reagan pulled it off in the GOP with hard work in 1980 and I believe we can too in 2010 and then 2012.

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Dave M Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 2:20 AM

Allen wrote: "If Hoffman was on the GOP ticket and without a third party candidate do you think Owens would still have beaten him? I think that would have been an unlikely scenario."

I don't know. I do know that conservatives are an endangered species in the NE US. The question is how many of Dede's supporters followed her into the Owen's camp. These are probably lost causes but you never know. Nor do I know how many of those 6500 or so of Dede's votes will be approachable next year.

What I do know is that
1. Dede would never have won given her track record.
2. It is better to have a Democrat win than a turncoat like Dede win and give the Democrats cover.
3. Without Sarah Palin there would have been no...

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 2:03 AM

I think you are spot on.

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carlos4 Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:57 AM

What was the game plan in picking a woman who has absolutely nothing in common with fiscal or social conservatives. You just can't support the stimulus and card check - forget the social issues.
Hoffman is a decent guy but he didn't have to time to organize. A little charisma would have helped as well.

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:53 AM

You wrote:

"however much i don't want to believe it I feel it necessary that we do not fool ourselves and must consider that this district is more liberal than we thought."

Possible, but still an unknown third party conservative candidate who was not even known until two weeks ago when endorsed by Sarah Palin comes within a few points of winning in what was still a three way race, that tells me that this district is still pretty conservative. If Hoffman was on the GOP ticket and without a third party candidate do you think Owens would still have beaten him? I think that would have been an unlikely scenario.

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:47 AM

You wrote:

"The GOP must back conservative candidates but conservatives in America can't rely on the GOP. The GOP 'guard dogs' who make decisions in capital hill are OUT OF TOUCH with americans. The GOP gave us Bush who was not a real conservative and that gave us Obama.

AMERICANS, will rise up and demand a CLEAR CHOICE. The GOP should offer a clear choice between liberal (DNC) and Conservative (GOP). And when the GOP fails - and i have a feeling the GOP will fail, then a third party candidate will arise."

Tribeck I want to provide you with two speechs by Ronald Reagan in the 1970's when we conservatives were in a similar boat. The first was called, "LET THEM GO THEIR OWN WAY!" given in 1975, concerning Republican...

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Dave M Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:32 AM

Allen wrote: "Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS...".

Oh I agree entirely about Dede and what you call "DIABLOS"
But however much i don't want to believe it I feel it necessary that we do not fool ourselves and must consider that this district is more liberal than we thought. Which is why I included the point about doing the necessary teaching in the next year. It is possible to convince people but it takes time and effort. Too often conservatism only shows up during election season.

Dave M.

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tribeck Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:25 AM

I listen to Levin too and I enjoy his passion and intelligence. Prager is always a calming voice of reason. Rush is different because going to college makes a difference, and of course using drugs can affect one's ability to be 'rational'. Having acknowledged his race baiting and nonsense - he does have 10-15 million listeners who vote for conservative ideas. This is my interest in his show. It's important that conservatives/liberals keep an eye on him because he is the reverend wright of the GOP party. Race baiting is a big business on both sides. Americans are rejecting this illness and replacing it with 'We The People' regardless of cultural background.

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tribeck Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:20 AM

Hoffman's defeat is not a conservative loss, judging by your illogical argument I take it you are about 12? It's a good start at age 12 but when you grow up then you can understand how logic works.

Let's try and connect the dots by asking hypothetical questions to set up the hypothesis.

Hypothesis: If Obama campaigns for a candidate then his popularity and liberal agenda will be reflected by whether the candidate wins or loses.

Finding: All the candidates Obama campaigned for lost tonight.

Conclusion: Obama's popularity and liberal agenda is reflected in the failed campaigns of the candidates he supported.

Simply put: Hoffman was the candidate without a party but who got adopted by conservatives...

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:14 AM

Seriously if there is concrete evidence that Rush's comments hurt Hoffman and helped Scozzafava then I'll accept it if its true. I just think that as of tonight the case for that is up in the air. Mind you I do not listen to Rush, I am a Mark Levin fan though. I can't stand anybody on Townhall.com, save maybe Dennis Prager.

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 1:09 AM

You wrote:

"Which brings me to my final point, Mr. Hoffman was a good conservative candidate. But he still came up short.-which implies that Newt,Steele,etc. were at least partially correct in their assessment of this district."

Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS. In this political race Owens was actually the more conservative candidate over Scozzafava. It is just as likely that Owens would still have won if the conservative base stayed once again as they have been doing since 2006 in elections. Ultimately...

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arch16 Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:57 AM

Allen Caeden writes: Wednesday, November, 04, 2009 12:47 AM
Arch
You wrote:

"Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more!"

Actually, until Sarah Palin endorsed him two weeks ago nobody knew who he was! She raised him from a distant third party candidate, to being just shy of winning the election all in the face of TWO POLITICAL MACHINES. Look let me repeat it over and over, the day of the RINO is over and the conservative revolution has begun. Now let's move on and get Rubio nominate and elected as with all the other conservative GOP candidates running for...

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tribeck Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:56 AM

The GOP must back conservative candidates but conservatives in America can't rely on the GOP. The GOP 'guard dogs' who make decisions in capital hill are OUT OF TOUCH with americans. The GOP gave us Bush who was not a real conservative and that gave us Obama.

AMERICANS, will rise up and demand a CLEAR CHOICE. The GOP should offer a clear choice between liberal (DNC) and Conservative (GOP). And when the GOP fails - and i have a feeling the GOP will fail, then a third party candidate will arise.

I strongly believe that picking Dede was the first mistake because it gave the GOP voters a false start i.e. like in relay race, if the person with the button starts a few seconds after the competition has started it costs the entire...

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Dave M Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:51 AM

Allen wrote-"I still cannot get why 6000+ voters would vote for Scozzafava? This to me does not make any sense at all."

Actually it does. This happens in politics all the time after a bitter intraparty squabble.

For me it is a disappointment but not a surprise. I assumed this seat was lost when the Republican party establishment picked Dede. (btw-the Republican Party did the same thing to us out here some years back when the incumbent died in office. Their hand picked candidate lost to Lois Capps and the seat has been hers ever since)

There are a couple of lessons to be learned here.

First-pick the right candidate in the first place. A faction fight like this invites loss (and usually deservedly...

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:47 AM

You wrote:

"Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more!"

Actually, until Sarah Palin endorsed him two weeks ago nobody knew who he was! She raised him from a distant third party candidate, to being just shy of winning the election all in the face of TWO POLITICAL MACHINES. Look let me repeat it over and over, the day of the RINO is over and the conservative revolution has begun. Now let's move on and get Rubio nominate and elected as with all the other conservative GOP candidates running for 2010.

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cavalier973 Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:44 AM

"In every state in which Barack Obama campaigned for a candidate, the candidate lost. Too bad he did not make it up to NY-23."

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Allen Caeden Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:42 AM

While I agree with you that what Scozzafava did when endorsing the Democrat showed how foolish it would have been to vote for this woman. But in the end it was a third party run, and historically they lose. The RNC wasted some $900,000 on Scozzafava who backstabbed them in the end. Hoffman's rise from a weak third place candidate two weeks ago, to just coming shy of winning while going against two political machines shows that the day of the RINOS is over! The out of nowhere conservative won over 50,000 votes, and the GOP establishment backstabbing liberal about 6,500. If the RNC is smart they will quit backing moderates and liberal DIABLOS (Democrat In All But Name Only) and now put their full backing behind solid conservative...

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arch16 Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:41 AM

Tyler writes: Wednesday, November, 04, 2009 12:34 AM
The country rejects the far right
100 years of republican rule in NY23

Conservative hero loses.

Haha

It's the end of conservatism as we know it, I feel fine.

Arch says

Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more!

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Patriotic Liberal Wrote: Nov 04, 2009 12:38 AM

i'd agree with your analysis in large part. not totally, but in large part.

yay. i was getting pretty bummed there, but NY-23 makes it an evening to remember.

From your perspective, keep in mind the Biblical adage: one fly ruins the whole ointment.

Hopefully marriage equality (and simple human decency) win in Maine too.

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