With the election just a week away, Democrats lead in two of the state’s most closely watched congressional races but are battling to hold on amid far greater enthusiasm among Republican voters, according to new Boston Globe polls.
US Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Newton, leads his Republican challenger, Sean Bielat, by 13 percentage points (46-33) among likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District. In the race for the open seat in the neighboring 10th District, Norfolk District Attorney William R. Keating leads state Representative Jeffrey D. Perry by 4 percentage points (37-33), within that survey’s margin of error.
In both races, however, supporters of the Republican nominees say they are more excited about the election, which often correlates to higher turnout on Election Day, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The center conducted the polls for the Globe.
Among those who say they are excited about Nov. 2, Bielat and Perry have double-digit leads, the polls indicate.
I'll post reports, including analysis, on both races later this week. Preview: I'm not overly concerned about either of these polls, particularly in the 10th District. The notion that Jeff Perry is polling at 33 percent is laughable. Scott Brown won 60 percent of this district in January. According to this poll, Perry (for whom Brown is actively campaigning) is under-performing Brown in the district by 27 points. That. Will. Not. Happen.
As for the Barney Frank survey, based on my conversations with top Bielat people, they are seeing strong evidence their campaign is surging. They view any MSM poll showing the 14-term incumbent below 50 percent as good news.
Parting Thought: (via Hot Air) Legal Insurrection reminds us that a Boston Globe poll in the final stretch of the Brown/Coakley race showed a 15 point lead for the Democrat. Heh:
Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points - 53 percent to 36 percent - when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. The results indicate that Brown has a steep hill to climb to pull off an upset in the Jan. 19 election. Indeed, the poll indicated that nearly two-thirds of Brown’s supporters believe Coakley will win.
“She’s simply better known and better liked than Brown,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.
Oops. This time around, the Globe is giving itself some wiggle room by noting that both Republicans hold double-digit lead among the most enthusiastic voters. Bottom line: It's all about turnout, baby.