S&P on Townhall

• The S&P 500's Expected Behavior Continues Sun Jun 16
  Political Calculations
• The S&P 500 Snaps into Focus Sun May 19
  Political Calculations
  It would appear that investors have shifted their forward-looking focus to 2014-Q1 in setting the pace of change for U.S. stock prices. Following the period after the fiscal cliff reaction of 15 November through 20 December 2012, they had been focused mainly on 2013-Q2. ... more
• A Big Week for the S&P 500 Tue May 14
  Political Calculations
  Even if stock prices stay flat, this will be a big week for the S&P 500, because this is the week that three of the largest companies that compose the market-cap weighted index will be determining who owns their stock for the purpose of paying out dividends for 2013-Q2. ... more
• Playing the S&P 500's Wild Cards Sun May 12
  Political Calculations
  Over the past several weeks, we've identified three potential wild cards that could affect stock prices in a positive way in the margin of our favorite chart. In just the last week, we've seen evidence that all three of these wild card factors may be coming into play. ... more
• Is the Rally for the S&P 500 Really Over? Sat Apr 27
  Political Calculations
  Is the rally really over? Well, we can't say that just quite yet, as it happens. To understand why we would appear to be contradicting ourselves, let's take a step back and consider just how we've arrived at this point. ... more
• McGraw-Hill seeking dismissal of lawsuit over S&P Mon Apr 22
  AP News
• The Current Microtrend in the S&P 500 Sat Apr 13
  Political Calculations
  The "sell signal" provided by our power-law, regression and statistical analysis-based method would be found by taking a given trading day's projected value for trailing year dividends per share and plugging it into the power-law formula we've indicated on the chart, then subtracting that result by three times the standard deviation for the current trend that we've also indicated on the chart. Phfew. ... more
• Shut Up and Enjoy the Rally Thu Apr 11
  Michael Schaus
  Despite the fact that economic fundamentals completely contradict every rally the market has seen as of late, some people insist the skeptics shut up, and enjoy the ride. ... more
• Going Fractal with the S&P 500 Sat Apr 6
  Political Calculations
  Not long ago, we indicated that a 150 point decline in the value of the S&P 500 would be a "clear sell signal" for investors.But then, a week later, we suggested that there might be a less clear sell signal. ... more
• Zooming in on the Future of the S&P 500 Wed Apr 3
  Political Calculations
  Since these values are both still below the level set by 2013-Q2's dividends per share, we can expect stock prices to continue rising in the near term. However that rally will tend toward stalling out as the gap between stock prices and expected future dividends closes up ... more
• The resurgent dollar could hurt S&P 500 earnings Fri Mar 29
  AP News
• State takeover of Detroit brightens city's rating outlook: S&P Fri Mar 15
  Reuters News
• Winter 2013 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings Tue Feb 19
  Political Calculations
  Since our last snapshot in November 2012, we find that the earnings for the S&P 500 in the last two quarters of 2012 and the first two quarters of 2013 are now expected to be recorded at levels below where they had been expected three months ago. ... more
• Quarterly Data for the S&P 500, Since 1871 Mon Feb 18
  Political Calculations
  Did you know that there isn't anywhere on the web where you can go and get quarterly data for the S&P 500 before 1988? It's true, or at least it was true, until today! ... more
• Dividends and Stock Prices: Don't Say We Didn't Warn You Tue Feb 12
  Political Calculations
  Once investors shift their gaze to a more distant future quarter however, we can expect stock prices to fall sharply, as the expected change in the growth rate of trailing year dividends per share for 2013-Q3 and 2013-Q4 are both deeply negative. ... more
• Messing with the Bull Sat Feb 9
  Peter Schiff
  In retaliation for the unpardonable sin of questioning the U.S. Treasury's credit worthiness, the Obama Administration is sending a loud and clear message to Wall Street: mess with the bull and get the horns. ... more
• U.S. Sues S&P Over Pre-Crisis Mortgage Ratings Tue Feb 5
  Washington, D.C.
  The U.S. government has accused Standard & Poor's of inflating ratings on mortgage investments to boost its bottom line, taking aim at a key player in the run-up to the financial crisis. Eric Holder made the announcement in Washington Tuesday. ... more
• Dividend Payers in the S&P 500 Fri Nov 16
  Political Calculations
  We find that while recessions tend to lower the number of companies paying dividends while they're ongoing, which we would expect, we find that the bigger driver of what affects the number of companies paying dividends to individual shareholders, retirement and pension plans, et cetera would appear to be the relative tax rate of dividends with respect to capital gains. ... more
• Fall 2012 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings Tue Nov 13
  Political Calculations
  Looking at the overlap of historic data and old forecasts, we see that the future vision of investors in December 2010 looking forward to the end of 2012 appears to closely match how things have actually played out over time. ... more
• California credit quality may improve with tax measure: S&P Wed Nov 7
  Reuters News
• The Controversial Advice That Warren Buffett Uses To Beat The S&P Sun Oct 14
  Paul Tracy
  I'm not saying you should have a portfolio of just two or three holdings. But at the same time, I'm not at all concerned with having a portfolio of dozens of holdings that represent every sector of the market. ... more
• Spanish government says had not expected S&P downgrade Thu Oct 11
  Reuters News
• Charting the Growth Rates of the S&P 500 Mon Sep 24
  Political Calculations
  Looking at the trailing year data, there seems little to be concerned about for 2013, however that might change rapidly should the the currently expected lackluster quarterly dividend growth for 2013 continue much longer. ... more
• The Spring 2012 Snapshot of Expected S&P 500 Earnings Sun May 27
  Political Calculations
  In this chart, we see that compared to our snapshot from 19 January 2012, investor expectations for earnings in 2012 have dimmed, especially for the first three quarters of the year. Meanwhile, they appear to expect that 2013 will provide a much better environment for the S&P 500's earnings per share. ... more
• The New Order S&P 500 Tue May 22
  Political Calculations
  On Friday, 18 May 2012, the state of order that had existed in the stock market since 4 August 2011 came to an end. ... more

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