Tony Katz

According the latest numbers from Public Policy Polling, Rep. Ron Paul is still edging out former Governor Mitt Romney for the lead in the polls leading up to the Iowa Caucus on January 3rd. According to the final Des Moines Register poll, Romney has the lead, with Paul in second and a surging former Senator Rick Santorum in third.

Yet, that is also not quite right. Read the poll, and you find that if only the last two days are counted, Santorum is in second, and Paul in third.

That poll can also be seen as off-base, as the Des Moines Register has it that 41% of caucus goers are still undecided on who will they vote for. Even Iowa congressman Steve King (R), a massive fixture in Iowa, hasn't settled on a candidate. He won't even endorse.

The move from Santorum, from all sources, appears to be real. 78% of Santorum voters are going to show up at the caucus come rain or shine, (or bitter cold) dwarfing the 56% of Paul supporters who say they will definitely show up. When asked about Santorum, blogger Stacy McCain - who has been traveling around with Santorum over the past few days - points to the fact that Santorum has done 350 events in the past 365 days. Santorum has also come out swinging, defending his decision to support former Senator Arlen Spector (a very interesting commentary) standing up to Romney criticism and even taking on Ann Coulter.

Craig Robinson, editor and publisher of The Iowa Republican.com, agrees with the Santorum surge, and also spells out a clear direction for Rep. Paul to move forward. Robinson believes Paul has the organizational power to take Iowa, and then be able to do to Romney in New Hampshire what he did to Gingrich in Iowa - run negative ads and keep up the pressure with even more negative ads, pushing down his poll numbers.


Tony Katz

Tony Katz is a radio talk show host, writer, public speaker and cigar enthusiast. His show can be heard on 93.1FM WIBC in Indianapolis, and at TonyKatz.com.