Let's chat about the state of campaigns for the United State Senate in the midterm elections on November 4.
The news continues not just to be good regarding the chances of the GOP taking control of the Upper Chamber; the news continues to improve.
Many of you know that my predictive skills are somewhat lacking. Whether it's picking stocks, the winner of a Presidential campaign, or whether I have enough time to cross the street before being mowed down by a crazed bicycle rider; I stink at it.
So, when I say that the likelihood of Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) becoming the Majority Leader on or about next January 3, it is not because I have done independent study. I am wholly dependent on people who have a better track record than I.
So, if the news were getting worse instead of better for Republicans, I would be writing about the excellent roll-out of Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign over the past month, not the campaign for control of the U.S. Senate.
McConnell's staff isn't measuring for drapes, yet, in the Majority Leader's suite - in fact it is not a lay-down that Mitch McConnell will win his re-election bid in Kentucky, but that's the way it is looking.
For example,Politico's James Hohmann looked at the field yesterday and led his analysis thus:
"With four months until Election Day, Republicans are as close to winning the Senate as they've been since losing it in 2006."
His next graf shows the movement toward the GOP:
"Six months ago, the GOP path to the majority was narrower: Republicans essentially had to sweep seven races in states Barack Obama lost in 2012 ? Now Republicans have more options. They've landed top recruits to take on first-term senators in New Hampshire and Colorado, nominated credible female candidates in open-seat contests in Michigan and Iowa, protected all of their incumbents from tea party challenges."
Even Dr. Larry Sabato's University of Virginia election analysis squad is putting the probable outcome at Republicans picking up between four and eight seats.
Currently, the Democrats control 55 votes (53 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus - and typically vote - with the Ds). Republicans have 45 votes.
Democrats must lose no more than 5 seats to maintain control (because Vice President Biden is available to break ties). Republicans have to gain a minimum of six seats to gain control.
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