Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of February 9 | |||
February 10 | |||
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January | 100.8 | 100.4 | 101.0 |
JOLTS - December | 4.98 | 4.972 | 4.975 |
Wholesale Inventories - December | 0.1% | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Wholesale Sales | -0.3 | ||
February 11 | |||
Treasury Budget - January | -$18.2B | 1.9 | -18.5 |
February 12 | |||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 285K | 278 | 288 |
Retail Sales - January | -0.5% | -0.9 | -0.5 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos | 5 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
Business Inventories - December | 0.2% | 0.2 | 0.2 |
February 13 | |||
Export Prices - February | -0.8% | -1.2 | -0.8 |
Import Prices | -3.3 | -2.5 | -3.00 |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) | 98.4 | 98.1 | 98.5 |
Week of February 16 | |||
February 16 | |||
NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.0 | 9.95 | 8.0 |
February 17 | |||
NAHB Index - February | 58 | 57 | 58 |
February 18 | |||
Producer Price Index - January | -0.4% | -0.3 | -0.4 |
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Housing Starts - January | 1.060M | 1.080 | 1.070 |
Building Permits | 1.060 | 1.032 | 1.060 |
Industrial Production - January | 0.3% | -0.1 | 0.4 |
Capacity Utilization | 79.9 | 79.7 | 79.9 |
Manufacturing Output | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
February 19 | |||
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 53.4 | 53.9 | |
Philadelphia Fed Survey | 9 | 6.3 | 8.5 |
Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
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