Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | ||||||
Forecast | Prior Observation | |||||
Week of December 15 | ||||||
December 15 | ||||||
NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 12.0 | 10.16 | 12.0 | |||
Industrial Production - November | 0.7% | -0.1 | 0.7 | |||
Capacity Utilization | 79.4 | 78.9 | 79.4 | |||
Manufacturing | 0.2 | |||||
NAHB Index | 58 | 58 | 59 | |||
December 16 | ||||||
Housing Starts - November | 1.030M | 1.009 | 1.038 | |||
Building Permits | 1.040 | 1.092 | 1.08 | |||
PMI Services Flash Index | 54.7 | 54.7 | 55.5 | |||
December 17 | ||||||
Consumer Price Index - November | -0.1% | 0.0 | -0.1 | |||
Core CPI | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||
Energy | ||||||
Current Account - Q3 | -$95.0 | -98.5 | -96.3 | |||
FMOC | ||||||
December 18 | ||||||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 295K | 295 | 295 | |||
PMI Services Flash Index | 56.3 | 56.3 | 57.3 | |||
Philadelphia Fed Survey | 22.0 | 40.8 | 25.0 | |||
Leading Indicators - Nobember | 0.4% | 0.9 | 0.6 | |||
Week of December 22 | ||||||
December 22 | 5.260M | 5.260 | 5.25 | |||
Existing Home Sales - November | ||||||
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November | 0.25 | 0.14 | ||||
December 23 | ||||||
Durable Goods Sales - November | 1.1% | 0.3 | 1.3 | |||
GDP - Q3 (f) | 4.0% | 3.9 | 4.0 | |||
GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
Personal Income - November | 0.6% | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||
Personal Spending | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||
PCE Price Index | -0.1 | 0.1 | ||||
Core PCE Price Index | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||
FHFA Housing Price Index- Oct | 0.3% | 0.0 | ||||
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r) | 93.0 | 93.8 | ||||
New Home Sales - November | 458K | 458 | 472 | |||
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 6 | 4 | Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |
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