The debates are concluded. In a few weeks voters will decide who will
occupy the Oval Office for the next four years.
While Senator John S. McCain, III was impressively aggressive during the
last debate, Senator Barack H. Obama made few mistakes. Undecided voters
in many focus groups assembled by various media outlets believed that
Obama won the debate. That was based upon style and his articulate
oratory. McCain had a much better command of the facts and he directly
challenged Obama multiple times. To the media that often came across as
grumpiness. I heard McCain described as an angry old man. Yet few of the
undecided voters were moved by the last debate. They all liked Obama's
style but they still have not determined to vote for him.
In state by state Obama has between a 5% and 10% lead. The fact is that
his highest percentage is less than 50%. Should almost all the
undecideds break for McCain, he yet could pull it off. It is highly
unlikely but not impossible.
Obama now is trying to dampen the enthusiasm among his supporters. They
are naturally thrilled that their candidate is substantially out front.
So Obama tells his rallies that Democrats have a terrible habit of
pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.
Obama has this going for him. No candidate who is as far behind at this
stage in the election campaign as McCain ever has come back to win.
McCain tells rallies he is six points behind and "We've got our opponent
just where we want him." McCain is known for being written off and
coming back to eek out a last-minute victory.
Then there is the Bradley Effect. Political scientists recently have
argued whether the Bradley Effect is still valid. Many believe it has
faded away. Others think it has diminished somewhat but yet prevails.
The Bradley Effect refers to Mayor Tom Bradley, of Los Angeles, who on
election day was way ahead of his Republican opponent in the polls but
when the votes were counted Bradley lost California by 50,000 votes.
Voters wanted to be politically correct when pollsters asked them so
they said they would vote for a Black. When they got in the privacy of
the voting booth they voted against the Black candidate. There was some
evidence of the Bradley Effect in the primaries. Obama was supposed to
win in New Hampshire but Senator Hillary R. Clinton won anyway. That
happened in a number of other states. Nowhere, however, was Obama 10
points ahead. The primary was neck and neck with Obama with a slight
lead but Clinton won.