WASHINGTON -- Principled or calculating or a bit of both, President Obama's choice on gay marriage is a bet on the political future -- a wager on the views and values of the millennial generation making its long march through American institutions.
It is a group in which Obama still has broad support, but no longer inspires as he once did. "The Obama generation," says Brookings scholar William Galston, "lasted about five years." Those ages 18 to 24 are less enthusiastic about Obama than those ages 25 to 29. Since 2008, political engagement among millennials has weakened, cynicism toward government officials has increased and skepticism about the value of political involvement has gone up.
Obama's gay-marriage shift is not likely to change this dramatically. In a recent survey by Harvard's Institute on Politics, 58 percent of millennials cited jobs and the economy as their issue of top concern. No other topic broke single digits, and cultural issues appeared hardly at all.
But looking beyond a single election, it is undeniable that America is in the midst of a large, consequential shift in the attitudes of the rising generation. A recent poll by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Berkley Center at Georgetown University found millennials to be less religiously affiliated than their parents. A majority thinks that government "is getting too involved in the issue of morality." While accepting that Christianity "has good values and principles," millennials often describe it as "judgmental," "hypocritical" and "anti-gay."
The pace of these changes is so rapid that sociologists are having a hard time keeping up. In the 2006 data sample that informed the first edition of Robert Putnam and David Campbell's indispensable "American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us," 25 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds described their religious preference as "none." The result of the 2011 sample, printed in the second edition, was 33 percent. In five years, support for gay marriage in that age group went from 48 percent to 60 percent. Those describing premarital sex as "never wrong" went from 34 percent to 44 percent.
If history is any guide, millennial attitudes will grow more conservative over time, at least in some areas. Those who become fathers to daughters will be less inclined to believe that premarital sex is "never" wrong. But the baseline of social liberalism is starting higher than in previous generations, with major political consequences as this cohort works it way through the decades.