Analysts agree that the bull market in stocks will continue as long as there is no recession.
And that ought to concern you greatly.
“All in all, the silver lining of our slow economic recovery is that another recession is a fair distance away,” notes MarketWatch.com of chief U.S. market strategist at RBC Capital, Jonathan Golub’s recent market forecast. “Therefore, Golub’s bull-market thesis remains intact: Price-to-earnings ratios will continue to expand, leading to double-digit returns over the next few years.”
But that assumes that we really have been in the midst of a true economic recovery.
There are several things that I know about how our American economy works.
A key driver of growth—in fact, the key driver of growth—is consumer demand. The availability of credit is a key to consumer demand. Rising wages are a key to increasing consumer credit. And job creation is the key to rising wages, despite Obama’s brave promise to raise wages using his phone and his pen.
In fact, his pen and his phone promise to screw up what little job gains the country has made.
“A study by the National Employment Law Project, a group that advocates for low-end workers,” writes the Press Enterprise, “found that the majority of the jobs that spurred the recovery from The Great Recession are low-end ones.”
The study notes that while professions have made up some of the ground that they lost during the recession, they have not added jobs.
“There are 1.85 million more jobs in low-wage industries like fast food and retail today than there were before the recession,” says AOL Jobs. “But, there are nearly two million fewer jobs in mid-wage and higher-wage industries, according to the report from the National Employment Law Project (NELP).”