As someone who mocked Romney mercilessly during the primaries and co-founded NotMittRomney.com, I can’t be accused of being a water carrier for Mitt. Moreover, I wouldn't walk back a single word I said about him, including the fact that he's the least electable GOP candidate since Goldwater. Yet and still, despite what you're hearing from the mainstream media, today Mitt Romney should be considered the favorite to win in November. There are no guarantees, of course, because it's tough to knock off a sitting President under the best of circumstances -- but if you were a betting man, there are a lot of reasons why Mitt would be the one to put your money on.
1) Weak Obama numbers: The early numbers we're seeing aren't good for Obama. At this stage of the race, a candidate who's almost universally known would like to be pushing, or ideally over, the 50% mark. The farther a candidate gets from that magic number, the more trouble he's in because it means the voters know his record and are looking for an excuse to vote for someone else. That's why, in races like this, undecided voters tend to break heavily towards the challenger.
According to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracking, Obama has lost every national poll of likely voters for the last month and more importantly, he hasn't cracked 45% support in any of those polls. Polling data at the state level is shoddy this early in the cycle, but Mitt Romney looks like he'll have an opportunity to compete with Obama not just in traditional must-win red states like Ohio and Florida, but in key states that normally go blue like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Obama is going to win, he must turn around a lot of voters who are familiar with his record and don’t seem to want him back as President.
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