The day before the vote, however, the House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony that highlighted another, more promising way to override the health care law: Americans can refuse to comply with its command that they obtain government-approved medical coverage, which the Supreme Court has deemed a mere suggestion even though it is essential to the legislation's goals. Furthermore, if ObamaCare objectors take a simple precaution, they can opt out without paying the prescribed penalty.
ObamaCare requires insurers to take all comers and charge them the same rates, regardless of health. Those rules create two problems that reinforce each other: They raise premiums, and they encourage people to delay buying medical coverage until they're sick.
As more healthy people go without insurance, rates rise further to make up the difference, which encourages more people to go without insurance, which increases rates further still. To avoid such a "death spiral," ObamaCare commanded young, healthy people to "maintain minimum essential coverage" as defined by the government, thereby subsidizing the medical expenses of older, sicker people.
But in upholding this mandate last month, the Supreme Court said it could not be justified under the Commerce Clause, instead redefining it as an exercise of the tax power. It is perfectly legal to go without the health insurance that Congress thinks you should have, the Court said, as long as you pay the "tax" imposed on people who reject the government's recommendation. That interpretation creates new challenges for ObamaCare.
"For most Americans," the Court observed, "the amount due will be far less than the price of insurance." Someone earning $50,000 a year, for instance, would be subject to a penalty of about $1,000 in 2016, when the tax takes full effect. A 2011 eHealth study found the average price for an individual policy was $2,200, a number that's bound to rise under ObamaCare's minimum coverage requirements, which ban no-frills, high-deductible health plans. As the Court noted, "It may often be a reasonable financial decision to make the payment rather than purchase insurance."
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