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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Tony Blankley :: Townhall.com Columnist
Honest Talk About Chinese Currency Manipulation
by Tony Blankley
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But more significantly, the global account imbalances -- profoundly exaggerated by their fixing the yuan -- may have been the primary cause of the world financial crisis. The case against this act of "exchange rate protectionism" (professor Max Corden coined the phrase) was put forcefully and presciently by Martin Wolf, the Financial Times' chief economic commentator (and as close to a 21st-century Walter Bagehot as we have), in his 2008 book, "Fixing Global Finance": "Many blame the United States' predicament on the policies of the Federal Reserve and lax regulation of the financial system. These arguments are not without merit, but they are exaggerated." He goes on to make a powerful case that China's currency-rate fixing supercharged the current account imbalances and led to the disaster.

What makes Wolf's argument piquant is that he cites -- and relies on for the "significance" argument -- the powerful lecture "Reflections on Global Account Imbalances," delivered in 2006 in India by Lawrence Summers -- then a private citizen and now President Obama's chief economic adviser.

It is doubly interesting that Summers gave the following dust-cover endorsement last year to Wolf's book: "Wolf is the world's preeminent financial journalist. This book should be read by anyone who cares about the future of the international system."

Major reviews of his book all point to the centrality of this currency-manipulation charge against the Chinese. For example, the review in The Observer -- a British newspaper -- by Will Hutton, states: "Wolf is tough on China's role in all of this and his book will be very unpopular with the Politburo and Chinese Communist party, which want to blame the hegemonic US for the crisis."

White House public talking points cite "Wall Street greed" and the shortcomings of our health, energy, carbon and education policies as major causes of the crisis. It would appear that the president's senior economic adviser may have a somewhat different point of view.

Both the administration and the two major parties in Congress owe the public their best non-ideological, nonpartisan public analysis of the causes of the current conditions. The financial re-regulation decisions they make may well decide whether our grandchildren live in prosperity or poverty. Let's not rush to write and pass this fateful legislation, as we did with previous economic legislation, until the public and the government know what we are doing -- and the politics permit an honest discussion.

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About The Author
Tony Blankley served as press secretary to then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich. Tony Blankley is the author of The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations? .
 
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Insights from the Panic of 1837 ...
This is good advice. Let me add that from 1842 until the 1960's, there was a universally accepted theory about the causes of the Panic of 1837. The theory was that the neanderthal Andrew Jackson destroyed the Bank of the United States, and thus removed the control system which kept local banks from going hog wild and issuing too much credit.

Then, Peter Temin published "Jacksonian Economics" which showed that the facts did not support the "settled science" promoted by all the great historians and economists during the 100+ year period. He showed that in fact the credit ratios of the banks were actually better after the demise of the BUS, and that causality would have to be found elsewhere.


Interesting conjecture
Plausible.
Indicative of the fact that we don't know what we know.
Now, who can we trust to figure it out?
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