Thomas Sowell
Jobs or Snow Jobs?

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President Obama keeps talking about the jobs his administration is "creating" but there are more people unemployed now than before he took office. How can there be more unemployment after so many jobs have been "created"?

Let's go back to square one. What does it take to create a job? It takes wealth to pay someone who is hired, not to mention additional wealth to buy the material that person will use.

But government creates no wealth. Ignoring that plain and simple fact enables politicians to claim to be able to do all sorts of miraculous things that they cannot do in fact. Without creating wealth, how can they create jobs? By taking wealth from others, whether by taxation, selling bonds or imposing mandates.

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Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of The Housing Boom and Bust.
 
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414 Comments So Far
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EARL Wrote: Dec 14, 2009 11:04 AM
Andy Wrote: Dec 14, 2009 7:59 AM
Socialism does not work. Socialism seizes money from the productive class, and redistributes it to the non-productive class. The only 'jobs' that socialism creates are government jobs. 'Government jobs' is simply another description for 'Workfare', i.e., trolls endlessly pushing papers, or enforcing regulations that have been created for them to enforce, or moving piles of sand from one corner of the lot back to the other. And always in the least efficient and cost effective manner possible. Socialism, and its natural lineal descendant, Communism, are simply another name for when the non-productive class 'takes over' from the productive class in a society, and starts to'call the shots' A society that goes down the socialism/communism 'trail' is DOOMED...
Donald Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 7:17 PM
Why does Sowell always sound so brilliant in his editorials? Simple. He recognizes truth and he is willing to present it. Why do our politicians teach us the opposite of what Sowell presents? Politicians do not deal in truth; they deal in beliefs, hopes, and promises. Not truth.
John Acton Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 2:43 PM
"By the way, gold has gone from about $900 an ounce in March to about $1130 today. That's about a 25% increase. Not bad, but I'll take 40% over 25% any day! And I am diversified."

You must have your investment all in big government! BTW, is the DJIA tacked with the value of gold the Dow would need to be over 27,000 today.
John Acton Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 2:17 PM
"Yes the dollar measured against other currencies is lower. However there is no correlation between the dollar's value against other currencies and either GDP growth or decline."

Really? So like the "Global Cooling" deniers, your measurement of GDP growth is not based on an "inflation adjusted" baseline. Amazing!

"In the Economy category, GDP dollar estimates for countries are reported both on an official exchange rate (OER) and a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. Both measures contain information that is useful to the reader. The PPP method involves the use of standardized international dollar price weights, which are applied to the quantities of final goods and services produced in a given economy. The data derived from the PPP method probably provide the best available starting point for comparisons of economic strength and well-being between countries. In contrast, the currency exchange rate method involves a variety of international and domestic financial forces that may not capture the value of domestic output. Whereas PPP estimates for OECD countries are quite reliable, PPP estimates for developing countries are often rough approximations. In developing countries with weak currencies, the exchange rate estimate of GDP in dollars is typically one-fourth to one-half the PPP estimate. Most of the GDP estimates for developing countries are based on extrapolation of PPP numbers published by the UN International Comparison Program (UNICP) and by Professors Robert Summers and Alan Heston of the University of Pennsylvania and their colleagues." CIA Fact Book
John Acton Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 12:53 PM
"Let's also assume that even more government programs are introduced such as capital gains tax reductions to encourage more jobs."

Let's assume the Democrat Congress does let the Bush Tax Reduction not expire? Considering the impact on private capital, will the unemployment rate be better on much worse?

"Now, do you think the unemployment rate will be greater or less than 10.2% by this time next year?"

If Obama continues his war on private enterprise, we will be lucky not to match the Great Depression's unemployment records.

"I think that it will be less than 10.2%. If I am right, will you then agree that Obama's policies have increased jobs? I think you will have no choice!"

The way you could possibly be right is if you let the East Anglia CRU do the data collection and the scoring!
John Acton Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 12:30 PM
"Lets assume.... That current Obama policies continue and that nothing is done to reduce minimum wage, OSHA, product safety laws, unemployment legislation, etc. for at least one more year."

Let's assume that the EPA regulations of naturally occuring and beneficial CO2 emissions raises energy costs for everyone, including non-governmental employers 50%. And let's assume that Obamacare with its front-end taxes raises the cost of hiring new employees 20%. And let's assume that increases in State and Federal Unemployment Benefits are passed on to the private sector employers, as they always are. And let's assume that Obama's protectionist tariff policies reduce US exports by 20%. And let's assume that government borrowing, new taxes, and printing government fiat money sucks 40% of the wealth and capital out of our economy. Given these hypotheticals, which are all part of Obama's "Full Employment Plan" - we will be lucky is unemployment isn't 30% in a year.
John Acton Wrote: Dec 11, 2009 12:08 PM
"Unless you are consuming gold, what do you care about its dollar value? Very little, except as a speculator."

Of course, dimwit, the ONLY Constitutional economic mandate the Federal government has is found in Article I, Section 8, to wit:

"The Congress shall have Power ... To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures; ..."

Nowhere will you find Federal authority to fund stimulus packages; buy-outs of private business, or regulate gases that are part the act of human breating.

John Acton Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 12:15 PM
"Also gold is a commodity that has minimal economic value (as compared to things people actually use, like oil, rice, soybeans, corn, etc.). Unless you are consuming gold, what do you care about its dollar value? Very little, except as a speculator."

Really? Why then was the US Currency tied to gold reserves for over 150 nearly inflationless years? Why does the US government stockpile gold in Ft. Knox and all the largest Federal Reserve Banks?

If economic ignorance were a virtue - you would surely be a saint.
John Acton Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 11:58 AM
"Wrong, there is no inflation under Obama:
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-infl ation-rates/

"We have a slight amount of deflation currently.

"And GW was President when the dollar fell to it's record low against the Euro in March 2008:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23629106/

"Try doing some research before you spout BS."

The CPI does demonstrate the true rate of inflation, you nitwit. A better inflation indicator is how much "script" the Fed is printing and circulating. The amount that the Fed has printed over the last three months is 2.1 TRILLION dollars. This is equivalent to an annualized inflation rate of 2009%.

The CPI is skewed by an impute housing rent cost based on the estimated value of the average home. Considering that people can't afford to sell their current home because they are on the "wrong side" of the mortgage to take advantage of this bear housing market, the imputed out-of-pocket "rent" cost is totally meaningless.

Kindly explain the price of gold then! Also, explain why China is insist to change the US Dollar to another currency is the US Dollar where holding it value as well as the CPI implies! Do you even understand the meaning of currency inflation, you dipshi'ite?

EARL Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 10:56 AM
For the ignorant ones out there who like to quote or refer to 'other' economists - some economists are communists. I know so because my economics professor in college was a self proclaimed communists.
Paul Klugman, a communist economist, is the liberal's claim to fame!
Dr Tom Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 10:06 AM
Fred, if you were somebody, it would be good fun to watch everyone here in this forum get a good laugh at your expense when unemployment numbers reach Great Depression levels by the middle of next year. They already are for Blacks and youth.

Have you never heard the parable "Don't bring a knife to a gun fight"?

How difficult is it for you to understand that what happens on Wall Street has little to do with unemployment? Yes, money is going into stocks because it's the only place to put it right now. People are saving, not spending. Employers, (the 'Stinking Rich' in your small mind) are NOT going to hire until we lose the Democatic (socialist) contolled congress, and President Hoax and Change, and pass some legislation that gets government off the backs of business.

Watching you get laughed at would be fun to watch.
pb Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 2:57 AM
Have you met Norm from NY, up there at #373? Another drooling in-bred simpleton.

Can you read? Did you read what I wrote at #1? Why not talk about that instead of me? Ever hear of Carnegie? Child-labor? Ford? Are you capable of anything beyond stupid & nasty name-calling?

BTW, 'people' are those things out there walking around on two legs with, on average, about 50 IQ points more than you have.

(But then how would you know?)

Note to Dr Sowell: These are your foot-soldiers? What was that that Swift said about a confederacy of dunces? You sure attract some garbage.
Fred Wrote: Dec 10, 2009 12:03 AM
Can't argue with Wall Street.

The money says Obama doin' it right.

It must be driving these "conservatives" nuts to see a President turn this downturn around so quickly.

Wait until the unemployment numbers start to drop early next year!

The "conservatives" will have to find something new to b-i-t-c-h about!

Should be fun to watch.
slacker Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 11:28 PM
The Dow is only 30 stocks, price weighted which makes it of limited usefulness for assessing the market.

A better indicator is the S&P 500 which is not price weighted (it is based on market capitalization of component companies) so it is a much better cross section of the US economy.

On Jan 20th the SPX - or S&P 500 index closed at 805. Today it closed at 1096. That's a 30% increase. That's right Obama haters - smart people who realized Obama was what this country needed after 8 years of GWB made 30% on their money in less than one year. They did this by simply buying an S&P 500 index fund on Obama's inauguration day!
Fred Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 10:53 PM
The Dow is up 30% since Obama became President.

Proof that Obama's policies are working!
Keep the change Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 5:44 PM
Everything is a total mess, but the ideas that have proven a long term failure over 80 plus years need more time!

Freakish druggies like slacker probably get unlimited mulligans when they play a gentleman's game.

Get the needle out of your vein, slacker.

Dry out and grow up!
Fred Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 5:41 PM
January 20, 2009 the day Obama became President:
Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at 7949

Today:
Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at 10,337

The Dow is up 30% since Obama became President.

Wall Street knows best. You can't argue with that righties.
slacker Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 5:23 PM
Yep, I agree.

Except we don't have to wait to see a big improvement. Shhh..... don't tell the Obama haters, but his policies are already working.

I took a huge bet and put my money where my mouth is. After Obama was inaugurated I moved hundreds of thousands of dollars out of fixed income & cash and into equities. The result: up about 40 to 50 percent so far this year.

That's evidence for me that his policies are working!

By the way, gold has gone from about $900 an ounce in March to about $1130 today. That's about a 25% increase. Not bad, but I'll take 40% over 25% any day! And I am diversified.
slacker Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 5:09 PM
None of the things you state indicate any problem for the economy.

I agree we have a much larger deficit than when Obama took office. However there is absolutely no evidence that a large deficit is bad for the economy. In fact if you check US economic history, budget deficits have ALWAYS led to growing economies. It is budget surpluses not deficits that lead to declines in the economy. If you believe otherwise, prove it.

Yes the dollar measured against other currencies is lower. However there is no correlation between the dollar's value against other currencies and either GDP growth or decline. Surprisingly, if you look into the two are not related. There are many times when the economy improves as the dollar declines. There are also times when the economy declines and the value of the dollar increases. In fact, the value of the dollar is strongly correlated with interest rates. When US interest rates a low relative to other developed countries the dollar declines relative to their currencies. This does not mean GDP will decrease. It may, as it has since Obama was inaugurated, INCREASE.

Also gold is a commodity that has minimal economic value (as compared to things people actually use, like oil, rice, soybeans, corn, etc.). Unless you are consuming gold, what do you care about its dollar value? Very little, except as a speculator.

As for unemployment see my previous note. Lets give him at least a year in office before we evaluate the effect on employment. I will bet dollars to donuts that unemployment will be significantly lower by mid 2010 than it is now and GDP will be higher.
Fred Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 5:06 PM
By this time next year we should see an improvement in the unemployment rate.

Now if the righties would give Obama's policies the same amount of time to work as they did when Bush did the "surge" in Iraq, we could stop arguing and let the results come out in the wash next year.
slacker Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 4:43 PM
That current Obama policies continue and that nothing is done to reduce minimum wage, OSHA, product safety laws, unemployment legislation, etc. for at least one more year.

Let's also assume that even more government programs are introduced such as capital gains tax reductions to encourage more jobs.

Now, do you think the unemployment rate will be greater or less than 10.2% by this time next year?

I think that it will be less than 10.2%. If I am right, will you then agree that Obama's policies have increased jobs? I think you will have no choice!
Churchill Q. Washington Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 4:37 PM
that's a nice looking chart, Fred, but statistics, as if people didn't know, can be deceiving.

With the economy going backward it may be masking inflationary pressures a while before we see the nasty results of what amounts to a huge run up in the money supply.

Fred Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 4:17 PM
Wrong, there is no inflation under Obama:
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-infl ation-rates/

We have a slight amount of deflation currently.

And GW was President when the dollar fell to it's record low against the Euro in March 2008:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23629106/

Try doing some research before you spout BS.
John Acton Wrote: Dec 09, 2009 3:29 PM
"After 8 years of proving the government can't work under GW, the repubs are so afraid that Obama can actually get the government to do something good for the country that their opposing him at every turn.

"The reason Obama won was because the economy tanked just before the election. God help you repubs if the economy starts to recover in 2010."

Yep! Obama is a master economist! So far in 10 months he has tripled the deficit, ruined the value of the dollar and US credit, got inflation up to nearly 5%, drove the price of gold up $1,100, and increased unemployment to double digits. Pure economic genious!
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