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Thursday, December 04, 2008
Steve Chapman :: Townhall.com Columnist
False Cures for the Recession
by Steve Chapman
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Times of emergency produce demands for action, and Barack Obama does not need to be urged twice. Weeks before taking office, he wants Congress to pass a fiscal stimulus bill costing half a trillion dollars or so, and his allies on Capitol Hill will undoubtedly give it to him. Amid a recession that some fear will spiral into a depression, no one wants to be accused of doing too little.

Obama's plan is expected to call for a host of remedies -- including extended unemployment benefits, aid to state governments, more infrastructure spending and a middle-class tax cut. It brings to mind the character in Stephen Leacock's humorous novel "Gertrude the Governess," who "flung himself upon his horse and rode madly off in all directions."

Even many conservatives, however, want Washington to deploy fiscal weapons. Economist John Taylor of Stanford University and the Hoover Institution, an adviser to John McCain's campaign, says it "would be a significant stimulus to the economy" if the incoming president were to extend the Bush tax cuts.

There are only two drawbacks to the proposals offered by both the right and the left. First, they would cost a lot of money, either in lost revenue or additional federal expenditures, further bloating our gargantuan national debt. That cost would be worthwhile if it were essential to stave off a total economic collapse. But there is a second problem: These plans are not likely to work.

Shoveling cash into various public programs sounds like a surefire way to boost total demand and thus juice the economy. But the money doesn't sprout from trees in Tim Geithner's backyard. Any funds it wants to spend, the government will have to borrow. The people who lend the money will no longer have it to spend. So the total amount of spending may not change much, if at all.

Timing is another glitch. Putting crews to work on roads and bridges doesn't happen overnight -- plans have to be approved, bids have to be solicited and contracts have to be signed. The Department of Transportation says that even with projects that are primed and ready, only one-fourth of the money gets spent in the first year. By the time an infrastructure program gets rolling, the downturn will almost certainly be shrinking in the rearview mirror.

If there are worthy projects out there, now is a good time to do them. But all we should expect in return is a better infrastructure a few years from now, not a stronger economy next May. Continued...

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About The Author
Steve Chapman is a columnist and editorial writer for the Chicago Tribune.
 
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Sigh.
"Now you have entered into the land of pure ideology."

You're projecting. Certainly, there ARE (Keynsian) economists who disagree and believe that goevernmental expenditure can be stimulative. I never calimed otherwise. Contrary to your assumption, however, they are a rapidly shrinking minority. As with any science, theories must conform to the real world.

The law of gravity would not have been of much use if objects simply flew off into space. Over time, theories and scientific laws are evaluated to see if the functioning of the real world conforms to the theory. Time after time after time the research indicates, without exception, that (a) government cannot possibly operate as efficiently as the market, (b) government cannot stimulate the economy via expenditures, and (c) any economic act must involve the resources available at THAT MOMENT - a fixed amount - which are therefore unavailable to other uses.

The issue of externalities IS subject to debate. This is why I did not say that they don't exist or that they cannot be sunstantial. What I said was that there was "no evidence" that they were "large" and pointed out the difference between external benefits in the aggrgate and shifting preferences - that, all other things being equal, increased property values in one area are often (usually) offset by a general decrease in values elsewhere because it is not an alteration of aggregate demand for property.

The faith in government in the face of overwhelming real world evidence is NOT economics, but ideology. *I* am not the wone engaging in that. I am merely trying to present the economic realities as they have been established.

Good day.

F1etch
Now you have entered into the land of pure ideology. There are many economists --probably most--who would disagree with you.

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