This is where the Biden selection negatively impacts Senator Obama’s chances to get those remaining 11 electoral votes.

In 2004, President Bush comfortably won Virginia (8% win). While the state seems to be trending democrat given recent statewide races, a democrat presidential candidate hasn’t won Virginia since President Johnson’s landslide in 1964. Two sitting U.S. senators from Illinois and Delaware with extremely liberal records aren’t going to convince the voters outside of Northern Virginia to vote for them. Given McCain’s military credentials and Virginia’s strong presence of military men and women, McCain should carry Virginia, which would give him 229 electoral votes.

In Missouri, President Bush won it in 2004 by over 7% of the vote. Even giving credit for the enormous turnout difference in the primary (820,453 democrat voters to 584,618 republican voters), overcoming a 7% defeat just four years earlier seems to be an unlikely event. With the liberal voting records of Senators Obama and Biden, their total lack of private sector experience, and their inside the Beltway ticket, McCain and his moderate voting record should have the edge, thereby giving him 240 electoral votes.

In Colorado, President Bush saw his roughly 9% margin of victory in 2000 get cut in half in 2004. With the substantial statewide and state house and senate wins over the last four cycles for democrats and the continued influx of liberals from California, Obama is likely to make Colorado an even closer election in 2008. The problem is that Obama’s strong draw in urban centers and college towns gain him little in Colorado as Denver and Boulder traditionally heavily favor democrats already.

As was shown in the 2002 United States Senate race and 2004 presidential election, so long as the margins of victory in Douglas County and Colorado Springs negate the margins of defeat in Denver and Boulder, it is mathematically hard for a democrat to win the rest of the state given the rural communities in the rest of Colorado. Biden didn’t add any element to the ticket to put these communities in play. With the large military presence in Colorado, McCain will keep its 9 electoral votes, leaving him with 249 electoral votes.

President Bush won both Nevada and New Mexico in 2004. Without Governor Bill Richardson on the Obama ticket, McCain, as the popular senator from the neighboring state, would seem to carry the advantage. Add in McCain’s appeal to Hispanic voters due to his attempts to provide illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship and his chances of winning those states is even stronger. As with Colorado, east coast Biden fails to change the dynamics in these states, too. Assuming McCain holds those states for the republicans, he would have 259 electoral votes.

That leaves just Ohio with both candidates needing it to win the presidency.

Hillary Clinton destroyed Obama in the Ohio primary. He won four urban counties (Cuyahoga; Franklin; Hamilton; and Montgomery) and one college town county (Athens). Obama received less than 40% of the primary vote in 62 out of 88 counties starting in the northeastern corner of Ohio, swinging down through the Appalachian counties, and then driving north into the traditional republican counties. It is an understatement to say that a ticket with two liberal U.S. senators from Illinois and Delaware with over 49 years spent as politicians mostly inside the Beltway will be able to reverse the views of those Ohioans who didn’t buy what Obama was selling just eight months earlier.

Unless McCain also fails to heed history’s lessons, he will hold Ohio and the presidency for Republicans with a 279 to 259 electoral vote victory. Specifically, McCain must select an outsider as his running mate. It frankly doesn’t matter who that outsider is as much as it matters that he or she is not a Washington insider. McCain’s choice won’t win any more states for him, but he could neutralize the advantage he has over the Obama-Biden ticket if he selects a Washington insider. Such a slip likely would put Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico and their 30 electoral votes in play, which are enough electoral votes to lose the presidency.

Most Americans view Washington insiders with a healthy dose of skepticism. In presidential elections, outsiders almost always beat insiders and ultimate insiders (the U.S. Senate is considered the most exclusive club in America) almost always lose to anyone else. In the 2008 presidential election, Americans will choose between two tickets. The democrat ticket consists of two liberal U.S. Senators from two liberal states. The republican ticket so far consists of one moderate U.S. Senator from a moderate state and one unknown.

Senator Obama doubled down against history by selecting Senator Biden as his running mate. My bet is that McCain will ask lady luck to blow on his dice and put his wager on an outsider for his running mate. With the Electoral College advantage he currently possesses, as a student of history and military strategy, McCain knows when to hold ‘em. Why gamble with history?