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Saturday, October 11, 2008
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Light at the End of the Crisis
by Larry Kudlow
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Fear and panic have taken over the stock market, the banking system and the economy. It is one of those moments in history when people feel helpless, frustrated and bewildered about what's going on and why it's happening.

Stocks are being pummeled in ways we haven't seen in nearly a century, both here and overseas. The Dow Jones is down nearly 20 percent this week, its second worst week since December 1914. The S&P 500 dropped over 20 percent in what looks to be the worst week in the history of that index (going back to 1928).

Behind all this, the credit system is completely frozen. Banks are now loathe to lend even to each other in the overnight markets that are so vital to the daily financing of American business. And the profits outlook is deteriorating badly, sparking fears that we may have a deep and prolonged recession.

And yet, much good may ultimately come of this terrifying correction.

I commend everyone to read the Wall Street Journal op-ed of Friday written by John Steele Gordon, an eminent financial historian. Gordon writes that there have been financial panics roughly every 20 years throughout American history. He goes all the way back to Alexander Hamilton, who orchestrated the first banking bailout in 1792. From this came a regular money-supply system, a credible U.S. government debt system and something of a disciplined banking system.

Gordon hopes that out of the current crisis we get a better system of well-capitalized banks regulated by a more unified government supervisory apparatus. My view is that the panic will pass and long-run American prosperity will continue. This may seem Pollyannaish right now, but I have great confidence that our free-market economy will come out better, with a strong financial underpinning, when the storm finally ends.

Paradoxical as it may be, strong government actions to stabilize banking are necessary to preserve the free-market-economy system. No free-market economy can survive without stable banking and credit. Without readily available credit, entrepreneurs can't put their new ideas into commercial practice. And without that vital innovation, economic growth suffers.

The trick now is to use government levers in smart and efficient ways. Banks need to be recapitalized without punishing current and future shareholders. Henry Paulson is working on this. More than likely, the Treasury man and the G-7 finance ministers are figuring out a plan that will temporarily guarantee all short-term interbank lending in the New York and London money markets. Continued...

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Unbundling the Mortgage Mess
Normally the markets would work and renegotiate the bad mortgages except the institutions that wrote the mortgages do not own them now. They sold them to investment bankers who bundled them and sold the bundles to investors (corps and govs) who issued bonds using the bundled mortgages as collateral.

Worse yet then a lot of credit swaps were written against the bundle backed bonds.

It makes it hard to break out the bad mortgages from the bundles and renegotiate them, especially if the bundle is owned by some city in Europe and the bonds that are backed by the bundle are owned by another entity.

The way to fix the mortgage mess is to find a way to break out the bad mortgages. So far only 4 % of the mortgages are bad (on average).

There has to be an equitable way to remove the mortgages from the bundles without doing extensive damage to the bond collateral.

The price of the bad mortgages should be borne (shared)by the mortgage originators, resellers, bundle owners, bond holders and the owners of the liquidity swaps. If all in the chain bear a small part of the loss the system will handle it and the chaos will cease at little or no cost to the tax payer.

At the moment speculators can buy unlimited amounts of credit swaps without owning any of the underlying bonds. That is causing a lot of the problem.


Thaw
The liquidity problem is mainly in the shadow banking system. The traditional system (for the most part) is not frozen and the shadow system is partially frozen. Most Banks can borrow on the Libor but it costs more and the maturities have shortened up. That raises the interest rate substantially for a lot of main street interest rates as they are tied to the Libor.

It is the suspect banks that can't borrow. They are probably solvent but there is doubt.

Europe has taken the right approach, Socialistic as it is, in putting liquidity directly into the suspect banks and insuring the Libor borrowings. That will thaw most of the problem for 3 months.

America and Asia will follow with some variation? That will thaw most of the liquidity problem for 80% of the financial world.

Stocks will tend to regain some of the loss that was caused by concern over the liquidity part of the problem.
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