The most underreported story of the election is that conservative voters provided the margin of victory for Barack Obama—a finding that has dramatic implications for both Democrats and Republicans.

Normally winning with impressive margins in the popular vote and Electoral College would translate into a governing mandate.  Obama’s victory was not an ideological one, however.  The electorate is almost exactly as center-right as it was in 2004.  The Bush 2004 voters who pushed Obama over the top rejected Bush and the GOP, but not conservative principles.

“Change” in parties, not beliefs

Voters backed the candidate who ran on change, but they haven’t much changed their views of the public sector.  On the fundamental question about the role government should play in society, voters shifted only slightly from four years ago.  In 2004, a 49%-46% plurality of exit poll respondents said the government should not “do more to solve problems.”  In the immediate aftermath of the meltdown on Wall Street that the media blamed on free markets run amok, barely a slim majority of voters, 51%, thought the government should do more. 

Though the lion’s share of Obama’s voters wanted more activist government, over one-fifth of his supporters said that the government is already “doing too much.”  This smaller group—largely consisting of the conservatives and conservative-leaning independents who had voted for Bush in 2004—cannot be forgotten as Obama and his advisors weigh their options for everything from financial industry regulations to an automaker bailout.

Defying conventional wisdom, Obama’s vaunted ground game only boosted liberal and youth turnout by one percent each of the total electorate.  A detailed examination of exit polling suggests that the Democrat’s victory primarily was keyed by two key factors: 1) many conservatives who used to consider themselves Republicans no longer do, and 2) almost one-fifth of Bush 2004 voters chose Obama, with the biggest defectors being conservative-leaning independents: “Security Moms” and Catholics.

Conservatives abandoned the GOP

Despite the harsh criticism most prominent conservatives level at him, Obama picked up one-third more conservative voters than John Kerry, at 20%.  Self-identified conservatives in exit polling comprised 34% of voters in both 2004 and 2008, yet the number who called themselves Republican dropped from 37% to 32%.  In an evenly split nation, the GOP losing 14% of its base overwhelmed almost everything else.

On statewide ballot initiatives, voters supported gay marriage bans in Arizona, Florida and California.  In Florida, Amendment 2 needed to clear the 60% threshold the state sets for amending the constitution, and the measure garnered 62% support.  McCain lost Florida, 51% to 49%. 

Even on what is presumed to be safe liberal territory—the environment—the electorate did not tilt leftward.  As reported on the Wall Street Journal web site, “Among five major energy and environmental ballot initiatives from California to Missouri, all but one were voted down.”  The one that passed, Proposition C in Missouri, encountered no serious opposition.

The ideological composition of the electorate, in fact, was almost identical to 2004.  Liberals went from 21% in 2004 to 22%, and moderates were 45% four years ago versus 44%.  Democrats enjoyed a small uptick in voters who label themselves Democrats, from 37% to 39%.  So while Democrats added some new adherents, most of their new seven-point margin in party ID owes to an exodus from the GOP. Continued...