Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
Login | What's Hot
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Jerry Bowyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
NBER: The Official Sponsor of the 2007 Recession
by Jerry Bowyer
Forward Print Share Single Page
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
Poll
Will Congress pass Obamacare by the end of the year?

Who died and made the National Bureau of Economic Research boss? During the past two days my in-box has been flooded by NEWS ALERT: RECESSION OFFICIALLY STARTED IN 2007 or some simulacra thereof. So who made the NBER the Supreme Court of recession calls? I asked them. The answer was not really confidence inspiring.

According to their press office, once upon a time the Department of Commerce published a newsletter called Business Dynamics (or something like that, she couldn’t remember the exact name), and business dynamics used to publish data on when recessions began and ended. One day, around 1962, the newsletter started publishing the recession data that they got from NBER instead of calculating their own.

That’s it. No executive order. No medal of honor. No national proclamation. Just a newsletter which the government used to publish, in which they printed the NBER’s recession bars. That’s what makes them official.

Now, the dictionary has a number of definitions of ‘recession’ the most well known (and precise) of which is: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I haven’t been able to find a dictionary which defines a recession as ‘whatever the NBER says it is.’

Intrade (which actually has to pay out on their calls) uses the classic dictionary definition; two negative quarters in a row.

I can see your emails flying towards me already: “What, Bowyer, you choose the betting parlors over the economics establishment?”

Yup—after all, the gamblers have had a much better record than the economists have lately.

Share:
Forward Print Single Page
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

Jerry Bowyer is a radio and television talk show host.

Be the first to read Nathan Alderman's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.

Join The Debate!

Post Your Comment
(19 comments so Far)
View in ascending order     View in descending order
Reply # 1
Date: Feb 17, 2009 - 10:23 AM EST
Semper Libertas
Consumption fueled by debt make up the basis of our economy. It was spurred by easy credit and inflation. This created massive mal-investment especially in real-estate, especially as you approach either coast. Folks flocked to the easy money of real-estate. Most are now out of work. The "financial" industry, supposedly a strength of the US is in tatters.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Obama, and his fiscal recklessness, will either create hyper inflation, or high interest rates via opening the flood gates of US treasuries, or both, either of which will reign in credit, and cause housing to further collapse.

You think 20% to 40% reduction of home asset value was bad....wait til you get the next 20% to 40%.

Then the government faced with the hard choice of massive deficits will do the one thing it has to: raise taxes.

If you think an economy driven under inflationary/debt leads to liberty, I have a bridge to nowhere to sell you....at a bargain.
Flag as Offensive

Reply # 2
Date: Dec 17, 2008 - 8:24 PM EST
Just sharing my thoughts
Over the past number of years I have had the unpleasant experience of seeing most of your contributing columnists on television, primarily CNBC; I wouldn't watch Fox if it was the only thing on television. I consider myself a fiscally conservative independent and I consider the majority of your contributors intellectually bankrupt, deluded, self-important twits. For six of the past eight years the country has been led by what any reasonably objective person would say was a conservative republican administration and just look where it has gotten us. My 17 year old son couldn't have screwed-up the country worse if he was trying. "W" and Cheney were your guys right? Maybe you should just shut up and pack up your things and go home.
Flag as Offensive
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
 *
State:
 *
Zip:
 *
Phone:
       
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.