Tuesday will see millions of Americans cast ballots in off-year elections in a handful of states around the country for legislators, governors, and on ballot questions amending state constitutions. While many eyes are still focused on the 2024 presidential race, Tuesday's state elections provide a chance for both major parties to give their post-midterm ground games and messaging strategies a trial run before 2024 becomes the only show in electoral politics. Here, in no particular order, are the races Townhall is watching.
Virginia Legislature
Even though the Old Dominion has been a "blue state" when it comes to presidential elections for years — George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Virginia in his 2004 re-election — and it has reliably sent Democrats to the U.S. Senate over the same period, state elections have been more slanted toward the Grand Ol' Party. As the analysts over at Townhall's official election results partner Decision Desk HQ note, "Republicans controlled at least one state legislative body for all but two in the past twenty years and held at least one of the big three statewide offices in twelve of the past twenty years." More recently following Biden's win in 2020, Republicans led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin surged in 2021 to win the three statewide offices on the ballot and take control of the Virginia House of Delegates.
The goal for Virginia Republicans is to take control of the state Senate — currently an 18-22 GOP-to-Democrat split — and hold the House, thus winning a trifecta of GOP control in Richmond. The GOP needs to add at least two seats to its column in order to win control with Lt. Governor Winsome Sears voting as a tiebreaker.
Here's where DDHQ is watching:
Richmond, much of the core Tidewater area, and the innermost DC suburbs have been Democratic for some time. Rural far western Virginia used to be Democratic leaning, but that area has reddened considerably over the last few decades. That reddening pales in comparison to the rapid advance for Democrats across Fairfax County and Henrico, then Prince William and Loudoun, and now, through Stafford, Fauquier, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Suffolk. As whites with college degrees moved towards the Democratic party, these swaths of the state blue shifted.
Much of this territory was won back by Youngkin in his successful 2021 election, though not enough to flip back Henrico, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties. The road to a narrow majority for Youngkin’s party rolls through them and their competitive districts.
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Kentucky Governor
Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear is looking to win re-election on Tuesday against Republican challenger and current Attorney General Daniel Cameron, but Republican voter registrations have surged to take the lead over Democrat voters in the otherwise red state.
Beshear won the governorship narrowly in 2019 against GOP Governor Matt Bevin, who was among the most unpopular governors in the U.S. That same election also saw Cameron secure his spot as the Bluegrass State's AG with more than 100,000 more votes than either Bevin or Beshear received — a good sign for the Republican challenger.
Yes, but... as DDHQ explains, Beshear might actually benefit from being in a red state that voted for Trump by more than 25 points in 2020:
Beshear benefits from what might be called the “Charlie Baker effect.” Because Republicans hold 80% or more of the seats in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly, Beshear has very little leeway to advance liberal policies that would be unpopular in the state. The governor can do little beyond veto the most conservative Republican legislation — much of which becomes law anyway, as Republicans have more than enough votes to override him. This dynamic allows Beshear to fashion himself as a check on one-party dominance of state politics and the defender of the status quo. (The empirical research on thermostatic public opinion finds that voters generally dislike big changes in policy.)
The team at Decision Desk HQ also notes that Beshear has had "a roughly 2:1 spending advantage" over Cameron, amounting to roughly $42 million to $23 million ad spending respectively. And while betting markets are "likely overconfident" about Beshear's odds, DDHQ says "Beshear is the favorite, but Cameron should not be written off: at the end of the day, a Republican winning in Kentucky would not be particularly surprising."
Ohio Ballot Measures
As Townhall has covered extensively, Buckeye State voters will be voting on a ballot question to amend the Ohio state constitution on Tuesday to include language that rolls back protections for women and girls, strips requirements for parental rights, renders illegal most if not all restrictions on abortions, and opens the door for all kinds of legal challenges to laws designed to protect victims of abuse and human trafficking as well as unborn children who can feel pain.
As Carrie Severino and Frank Scaturro summarized of the Planned Parenthood-backed ballot question:
The proposed Ohio constitutional amendment would make the state into a haven for no-limits abortion and other procedures. It would become a likely jurisdiction to harbor a future Kermit Gosnell, whether he is a practitioner of abortion, sex-change surgery, or other procedures under the umbrella of reproductive care. Complete strangers who assist children in obtaining life-altering procedures would find themselves on the right side of the law, while parents who try to protect their children would be deemed to have run afoul of the law.
In addition, Ohio voters will decide whether the state should legalize recreational marijuana use. A similar attempt to do so roughly one decade ago failed, but polls in Ohio show around 60 percent support for legalization this time around. Still, in an off-year Election Day, who shows up to vote will likely skew that final outcome.
Mississippi Governor
Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves is looking to win re-election on Tuesday night, but Democrat Brandon Presley — yes, a relative of the King of Rock and Roll — has mounted a vigorous challenge thanks to significant financial support from the DNC.
Reeve won in 2019 with some 52 percent of the vote, a smaller-than-desired margin in the otherwise deep-red Magnolia State, giving Democrats what they believe is an opening to seize executive power in the state where Republicans have been in power for the last two decades.
A potential complication — or at least an added bit of drama — comes courtesy of an election law change in Mississippi: for the first time, the race for governor is now subject to a runoff election if no candidate receives a simple majority of the vote. The latest polls from Mississippi show Reeves with a narrow lead over Presley, but some have both candidates drawing less than 50 percent — hence the chance of a runoff.
An election night result where one or both candidates are close to the 50 percent mark would likely drag out and lead to a delayed call as every last vote is counted to determine whether a runoff is necessary. If it turns out neither candidate secured a majority on Election Day, the runoff will be held on November 28.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Keystone State voters will elect a new state Supreme Court justice on Tuesday, filling a vacancy created by the death of former Chief Justice Max Baer in 2022. The Republican candidate is Carolyn Carluccio, currently a judge on the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, up against Democrat Daniel McCaffery, a state Superior Court judge.
While the liberal wing of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court enjoyed a 4-2 majority, a Republican win on Tuesday would put the split at 4-3, making it easier for conservatives to flip control of the court back their way in 2025 as Republicans look to undo the damage of the 2015 election that saw the GOP lose three seats.
As always, Townhall will have live results on Tuesday night after the polls close in states holding off-year elections and analysis of what happened, why it did, and what it means in the days ahead as all eyes turn to 2024.
Rhode Island Congressional Special
Voters in Rhode Island's first congressional district will choose a new U.S. representative on Tuesday, picking between Republican Gerry Leonard and Democrat Gabe Amo to serve out the final months of the term started by Democrat now-former Rep. David Cicilline who resigned his seat in May.
Leonard is a retired U.S. Marine colonel who served combat tours in Iraq, Kuwait, Somalia, and Afghanistan after graduating from the Naval War College. Amo is an alum of the Obama and Biden administrations where he most recently worked as a special assistant to President Biden as director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs.
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