New polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows a now-familiar picture of the state of the Republican presidential primary field: Trump with a dominant lead, DeSantis a distant second, and all the other candidates somewhere in the rear with three percent or less.
According to the Times/Siena poll conducted July 24-27, the numbers shook out to 54 percent for Trump, 17 percent for DeSantis and three percent for Haley, Scott, and Pence while Ramaswamy and Christie tied with two percent. The remaining declared candidates failed to reach one percent.
The shellacking Trump is shown to be delivering to his GOP rivals among likely primary voters in the Times/Siena first survey of the 2024 campaign seems to be pretty universal across different demographics:
Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” favored the former president.
Notably, when primary voters were asked to choose between Trump or DeSantis in a head-to-head contest, even 22 percent of "voters who believe [Trump] has committed serious federal crimes" supported the 45th president — "a greater share than the 17 percent that Mr. DeSantis earned from the entire G.O.P. electorate."
"Mr. Trump still received 22 percent among voters who believe he has committed serious federal crimes" https://t.co/cUI8aQ07TM
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) July 31, 2023
Republican primary voters polled for the latest survey were more likely to say that DeSantis is "likable" and "moral" while Trump is seen as "fun," "able to beat Joe Biden" and "get things done" as a "strong leader." Despite the DeSantis campaign's efforts to show the Florida governor as the more electable candidate in the general election, more GOP primary voters still think Trump can beat Biden this time around.
The Times explains further:
A strong majority of Republicans surveyed, 58 percent, said it was Mr. Trump, not Mr. DeSantis, who was best described by the phrase “able to beat Joe Biden.” And again, it was Mr. Trump, by a lopsided 67 percent to 22 percent margin, who was seen more as the one to “get things done.”
Mr. DeSantis narrowly edged Mr. Trump on being seen as “likable” and “moral.” Interestingly, the share of Republicans who said Mr. Trump was more “fun” than Mr. DeSantis (54 percent to 16 percent) almost perfectly mirrored the overall horse race.
Sure, it's still early in the primary race. But there hasn't been much that's changed the math of the field. Each indictment against Trump has only bolstered his standing and — despite polls showing an uphill slog for the former president in the general election — Republicans still think he's better positioned to retire Biden and are willing to support him, even if they believe he's committed serious crimes.
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