Former President Donald Trump takes a significant double-digit lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Ohio.
According to a Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey conducted for AARP, 52 percent of Ohioans support Trump over Harris’s 42 percent—a ten-point advantage.
In the deep red state of Ohio, Trump holds an edge over Harris among Independent voters and even in a matchup including third-party candidates.
The poll’s findings come after Trump picked Ohio Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) as his 2024 running mate. Like Trump, Vance has a net +5 favorable rating among the state’s voters.
For Harris, and even when President Joe Biden was still in the running, their chances of securing Ohio appeared bleak.
“Biden and Harris are both underwater, though Biden is viewed substantially more negatively than Harris is,” the survey stated, finding that Trump’s “recalled job approval” rating is net +10, while Harris’s is net -19.
Trump has won the state by eight points in the past two elections, making the odds of a Harris win in Ohio long. In 2020, Trump won 53.27 percent of the vote or 3,154,834 total votes.
“The fact is Kamala Harris has been consistently to the left of Biden on the issues. And that’s not going to work in Ohio,” Ohio Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou said.
Before Biden was forced out of the race, according to an Economist survey, he had only a one in 20 chance of beating Trump. Meanwhile, Trump had a 19 in 20 chance of winning the state.
Densely populated Midwestern state, Ohio partly lies in the Rust Belt, with its southern portion culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. The Buckeye State has been trending to the political right in recent years after being considered a crucial bellwether state for decades, with every presidential election since 1992 decided by single digits…. The GOP's overwhelming success in the 2022 midterms further evidenced the state's rightward shift, suggesting a further decline in its bellwether and swing-state status. Now considered moderately Republican, Ohio is expected to be less contested in the 2024 presidential election than in previous cycles. via The Hill.
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The Hill noted that Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning Ohio, regardless of his Democratic opponent.
So far, there has not been a single poll or survey that finds the Democratic nominee, whether that be Harris or Biden, defeating Trump in the state.
Trump is also currently ahead in crucial battleground states such as Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona.
A Harvard-Harris poll found that Trump took a three-point lead over Harris nationally. 48 percent of respondents suggested they would vote for the 45th president if the election were held today, compared to 45 percent who said the same about Harris.
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