Former President Trump is closing in on the tight 2024 race against President Joe Biden in Michigan.
According to a Fox News poll, Trump leads Biden in the state by just two percentage points, with the Democrat receiving 45 percent support and Trump garnering 47 percent.
Trump’s two-point lead falls within the poll’s plus or minus three percent margin of error.
This compares to a July 2020 poll by Fox News Beacon Research and Shaw Company, which found that Biden was ahead of Trump at the time— 49 to 40 percent. That same year, Biden won Michigan by less than three percentage points.
However, in 2016, Trump won the state by less than half a point— the first time Michigan had flipped red since 1988.
Biden’s best groups include those that traditionally go Democratic, including liberals, Black voters, suburban women, those voting on the abortion issue, and voters with a college degree. He’s also ahead with those living in union households, voters aged 65 and over, and women.
While he still has a substantial lead among Black voters, Biden’s 68% share today is down significantly from the 93% he won in 2020, according to the Fox News voter analysis election survey. He’s also lagging his 2020 numbers among women, voters under age 45, men under 45, and independents.
Trump’s strongest support comes from conservatives, those saying immigration and border security are extremely important to their vote, White evangelical Christians, Whites without a college degree, and rural voters. He’s also favored by younger voters, men, White voters, and independents. In addition, party loyalty also plays a big role in Trump’s advantage, as 93% of Republicans back him, compared to 89% of Democrats for Biden. Via Fox News Digital
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Biden’s age and cognitive health have been a significant cause for concern. Several reports predict the 81-year-old president will drop out of the race at the Democratic National Convention, allowing someone to take his place.
Some reports suggest Vice President Kamala Harris will take the president’s place. However, her approval rating is much worse than Biden’s.
A FiveThirtyEight poll found that Biden’s approval rating is a net negative 17 points after his political disaster. Meanwhile, an NBC News poll found that 76 percent of voters — with 54 percent of Democrats— had concerns about Biden, citing his physical and mental health.
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