Ann Selzer is riding off into the sunset. The famed pollster, long viewed as the gold standard, announced her retirement amid a sea of controversy. Her latest poll turned out to be atrociously wrong. It was dropped days before Election Day when the pollster claimed that Kamala Harris had taken a three-point lead over Donald J. Trump in Iowa. The 47-44 split was widely laughed at within Republican circles, while her colleagues in the polling world didn’t buy it either. Even liberal outlets were skeptical, though their headlines painted a different picture: It sated liberals who were starved of good news for months.
Selzer ended up being off by 14 points. Forget that the state was Trump+18 in June—we would’ve seen the erosion throughout the summer. Democrats would have been pouring mountains of cash into this contest, and Kamala would’ve visited the state more—none of that happened because Iowa was never in play. This isn’t 2008 and 2012, where Democrats won the state by healthy margins. I don’t know what Ann was thinking, but if this was her last hurrah, then so be it (via Politico):
Two weeks after her firm incorrectly found Vice President Kamala Harris surging in increasingly red Iowa, pollster J. Ann Selzer said Sunday she is leaving election polling and ending her longstanding relationship with the Des Moines Register, which dates back to 1997.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote in an op-ed for the newspaper.
[…]
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer wrote. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
The Iowa poll has taken on a near-mythical status over the past two decades, mostly driven by the state’s role in the presidential nominating process. It was the only survey to nail the order of Democratic candidates in the 2004 caucuses. Selzer’s final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucus-goers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory.
Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the final days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
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BREAKING: Trump calls for investigation into disgraced Iowa pollster Ann Selzer after her pre-Election Day poll showed Harris leading the state by 3 points.
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 17, 2024
"She knew exactly what she was doing.... An investigation is fully called for!" pic.twitter.com/OTCCldrBqb
She won’t be allowed to leave quietly, however. President-elect Donald J. Trump demands an investigation into why Selzer’s poll was so inaccurate. She had the equivalent of Dan Marino’s last game with this poll. Gannett, which publishes the Des Moines Register, is conducting an internal audit into the survey, which got leaked to Democratic operatives. Yet, many suspect that it was dropped as a liberal media propaganda operation, which, frankly, wouldn’t be all that surprising.
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