On Monday night, the eve of the 2024 election, Atlas Intel released their final poll on the presidential election, key Senate races, and the North Carolina governor's race. For all the talk on whether to believe the polls, this one is at least worth taking a look at, as it turned out to be the most accurate poll for 2020. Just as he did in polling from Sunday and last week, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is leading against Vice President Harris. He continues to lead in key swing states, though the race is also tightening in many states.
The poll looked at the seven battleground states, where Trump is leading in all of them. The poll also looked at Minnesota, where Harris only leads by +2, despite having selected their Democratic governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate. She also leads by +5.4 in Virginia, with both those states showing a narrowed gap since 2020.
Although Minnesota has voted for the Democratic candidate every year since 1972, Trump came awfully close to winning it in 2016. He's also looking to put Virginia in play, and even campaigned there over the weekend, in Salem.
Trump's lead has gone down when it comes to his support in some of these swing states, though that he's still leading is nevertheless significant. He still leads by +0.9 in Wisconsin, while Harris had meanwhile been leading there by +0.2.
With the toss-up states being what they are, there's no clear winner with 270 votes, though Trump still maintains an edge over Harris, 252 to 226 in the Electoral College.
ATLAS POLLS - SWING STATES
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
Among the battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, while narrowing the 2020 margins in Virginia and Minnesota. However, Georgia and Pennsylvania, two of the most valuable states in the Electoral College, are close. pic.twitter.com/MNZUcLXNSA
Data collected from November 3-4: AZ (875 respondents); GA (1112); MI (1113); NV (707); NC (1219); PA (1840); WI (869). The margin of error is ±2 pp for PA, ±4 pp for NV, and ±3 pp for the other key states.
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
Data collected from November 1-4: MN (2065 respondents); MT (752); OH…
As a post from Atlas Intel notes, and as Guy has emphasized before, the race is likely going to come down to Pennsylvania, which also has the most electoral votes of any of the swing states, 19 of them. It's worth reminding that had Harris chosen the commonwealth's popular and moderate (enough) Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, this race would likely not be so close.
Trump also wins at the national level in a full field and a head-to-head matchup, even if Harris has seen "a slight improvement."
The polls were conducted just before Election Day, November 3-4.
HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
The time series illustrates the stability of the race, with a slight improvement for Harris in the campaign's final stretch.
🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 48.8% pic.twitter.com/chGOKWZU1q
Conducted between November 3-4, the Atlas poll surveyed 2,703 likely voters across the United States. The margin of error is ±2 pp.
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
Access the full poll at https://t.co/UnikcpXhVV
Andrei Roman also joined Fox News' "Jesse Watters Primetime" on Monday night to discuss the results of his poll and the state of the race. He highlighted "a structural advantage for Trump," not just in the "very competitive" swing states, but also mentioned how close the race is in Minnesota, a finding that was particularly shocking to Watters.
Roman spoke of these "structural changes" in states where Democrats had previously done well, like Nevada, and those where they have improved, like North Carolina and Georgia, are still affected by the low approval ratings of this current administration. Of course, it's worth reminding that Harris is a member of this administration, as the sitting vice president.
What also helps Trump is that urban voters aren't turning out so much, while rural voters do, though it's also possible early voting versus Election Day voting could play a role as well, Roman mentioned.
"At the end of the day you have to look at sort of magnitudes on both sides and try to understand on balance what is more relevant," Roman offered. "What I would say is that overall, the data so far, kind of suggests that a conservative base this time around appears to be more excited about participating in this election cycle."
Will Atlas Intel turn out to be the most accurate once again? We'll know soon enough, hopefully. Make sure to stay tuned with Townhall to find out!
2020's most accurate pollster, @Andrei__Roman, joins Primetime with his final prediction before election day. pic.twitter.com/YB0QiXm0lC
— Jesse Watters (@JesseBWatters) November 5, 2024
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