With just days away from Election Day, we're seeing a flurry of polls. Perhaps the most crucial to watch, though, comes from Atlas Intel, as this turned out to be the most accurate poll for 2020. As it turns out, these results look pretty similar to other polling trends, though the good news for former and potentially future President Donald Trump is even more pronounced.
Trump has been polling well in the swing states against Vice President Kamala Harris, which is where this election will very likely come down to. Of the seven "decisive swing states" polled--North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania--Trump leads in all of them but Wisconsin, where Harris has an edge of +0.2.
📊ATLAS POLLS - SWING STATES
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
Harris leads in only one of the 7 decisive swing states for the Electoral College outcome: Wisconsin. Trump's advantage over his opponent is most significant in states such as AZ, NV and NC. The race is tight in the Rust Belt swing states. pic.twitter.com/H0AqUuraoL
The biggest lead for Trump comes from Arizona, where he's up by +4.2. against Harris, followed by North Carolina where he's up by +3.7 and Nevada, where he's up by +3.6. This one is especially critical, given potential concerns about voter integrity since the Nevada Supreme Court ruled that mail-in ballots without a postmark can still be received three days after the election. Trump is also up by +2.3 against Harris, which may seem somewhat low, but is still an edge. In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical swing state, Trump's lead is at +1.5, and he has an edge of +0.6 against Harris in Michigan.
Pennsylvania has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, making the commonwealth even more critical and more of a nail biter. Wisconsin has an MOE of plus or minus 4 percentage points, and all other states have an MOE of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Even in what polls have predicted to be such a close race, Trump's lead is still outside the MOE in three states at least.
If we go by these poll results, and those results for other, non-polled states from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Trump has a clear electoral win with 278 votes. With Harris' edge so miniscule and within the margin of error, though in such a state, Wisconsin is still feasible for Trump. That would bring him another 10 electoral votes. Both Wisconsin and Michigan are in the "Toss-Up" category.
Note: In the above projection, states that were not polled use publicly available ratings from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
At the national level, Trump is also shown to be leading Harris by 49.6-48.2 percent in a head to head matchup. He still leads by 49.1 percent-47.2 percent against Harris with other third-party candidates on the ballot. Such results look to have stayed about the same in recent weeks.
Polling was conducted October 30-31, with the national poll having an MOE of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
HEAD-TO-HEAD SCENARIO
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
In a head-to-head race between Harris and Trump, the difference in favor of the Republican in voters' preference at the national level is reduced to 1.4%. The absence of other candidates benefits Harris, who grows by exactly 1 percentage point. pic.twitter.com/oKpiuSJlyI
According to RealClearPolling, which includes the Atlas Intel poll, Trump is ahead nationally by +0.3. Trump is also up by +1.1 overall in the key battleground states. Trump leads in five of those states, with Georgia giving him his largest lead of +2.6, while Harris leads by +0.3 in Wisconsin and by +0.8 in Michigan.
538, which also includes Atlas Intel, shows Harris up by +1.2 at the national level. Trump is still leading in four swing states, while Pennsylvania is tied, and Harris has the edge in Wisconsin and Michigan.
As it turns out, this isn't even the final poll from Atlas Intel. We can expect more in the coming days, with Election Day four days away.
The polls AtlasIntel released today were not our final polls. Expect one or two more releases prior to Election Day.
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) October 31, 2024
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