This presidential election has been one for the ages, and we still have almost four months to go. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump has been consistently leading President Joe Biden in the polls for some time now. It's quite likely the assassination attempt against Trump on Saturday could help his chances even further, especially in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, where he's also leading. Multiple polls have already been released this week, and those too show Trump leading, even if there was a mistake in one poll's release.
An NBC News poll released on Sunday shows Trump up 45-43 percent over Biden among registered voters. When third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. are on the ballot, Trump leads Biden with 40-37 percent, with RFK Jr. receiving 10 percent.
📊 NATIONAL POLL: NBC News
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 15, 2024
🟥 Trump: 45% [-1]
🟦 Biden: 43% [-1]
🟪 Other: 6%
---
🟥 Trump: 40% [+3]
🟦 Biden: 37% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10% [-3]
🟩 Stein: 3%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟨 West: 1%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 47% [+1]
🟥 GOP: 46% [-1]
[+/- change vs April]
——
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦… https://t.co/Xn7JZPgPZ0 pic.twitter.com/AaK65Z2gkR
This is the corrected and actual findings of the poll, though. The link to the NBC News poll emphasizes that it's a "corrected" poll. A previous version claimed Biden was up +3, with 40-37 percent against Trump.
"The polling team extends its apology to NBC News and to all those who reviewed the filled in questionnaire of our most recent survey. We made an important mistake on the filled in released today. On the multi-candidate ballot, we flipped the numbers. President Biden is not ahead with 40% to 37% for former President Trump. In fact, Trump is ahead 40% to 37%," a statement at the top reads. "The correct data is reflected in the crosstabs and slides, but unfortunately these numbers were flipped in the topline document that the polling firms prepared for public release for NBC. We take full responsibility for a very significant error on our part. Deep apologies." The statement comes from "Bill McInturff + Jeff Horwitt."
Sam J. at our sister site Twitchy pointed to a post sent out on Sunday night from POStrategies, one of the pollsters involved. Many users reacted on X by tying in "POS" with the mixup involved.
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The same explanation included in the post is also included in the poll linked above.
The polling team extends its apology to @NBCNews and to all those who reviewed the filled in questionnaire of our most recent survey. We made an important mistake on the filled in released today. On the multi-candidate ballot (Q8, corrected here) we flipped the numbers.…
— POS (@POStrategies) July 15, 2024
Biden's acing particularly low approval ratings, as just 40 percent of registered voters approve of the job he's doing, while 58 percent disapprove. The only time these numbers have been worse for Biden per an NBC News poll is when just 37 percent approved of the job he was doing and 60 percent disapproved.
An NBC News write-up speaks to just how low those numbers are:
In the history of the NBC News poll, that 40% approval rating for Biden was lower than every other recent first-term president had in the summer before their re-election — except for George H.W. Bush, whose approval rating stood at 34% at this point in 1992 before he lost.
Biden’s rating was 1 point lower than Trump’s 41% approval rating in the July 2020 NBC poll, before Trump's failed re-election bid.
“Biden looks more like the two incumbents who lost rather than any incumbent who won,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster.
Although the narrative of trying to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee may have quieted down since the assassination attempt against Trump, the poll, conducted before Saturday's shooting, nevertheless explores that scenario.
Trump also has a lead of 47-45 percent against Vice President Kamala Harris, for instance, should she end up being the Democratic nominee instead of Biden. Multiple polls have consistently shown Harris down in a Trump-Harris scenario.
This NBC News poll also showed that 62 percent of Democratic voters and those who lean Democratic say they "would have preferred someone else," while just 33 percent are "satisfied that Biden is the nominee."
Those numbers are much better for Trump among Republicans, who was just formally nominated at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee earlier on Monday. Seventy-one percent of Republican voters and those who lean Republican say they are "satisfied that Trump is the nominee," while 27 percent "would have preferred someone else."
The poll also asked voters if certain characteristics describe Trump and Biden, and just as we've seen in plenty of other polls, the results are particularly bad for the president:
- Just 39 percent say Biden has "a strong record of accomplishments as president," while 46 percent say so about Trump.
- Whereas Biden once led in September 2020 by 49-41 percent over Trump when it comes to "serving as commander-in-chief," it's now Trump who leads, this time by 46-38 percent.
- Just 39 percent say they consider Biden to be "competent and effective," while 49 percent say so about Trump. This is the lowest finding for Biden on such a question, and the highest for Trump, with NBC News also asking the question in polls throughout 2024 and one in June 2020.
- While just 21 percent say Biden has "the necessary mental and physical health to be president," the lowest finding for him on this question since NBC News asked such a question multiple times in 2024 and 2020, 50 percent say so about Trump, his highest.
Even when it comes to the criteria of "having the right temperament to be president," where Biden is up over Trump, 47-31 percent, he's gone down in this area from October 2020, whereas Trump has gone up. Those numbers had once been at 58-26 percent.
The poll asks another question about Biden's age, specifically if "at 81 years old, Joe Biden not having the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term" is a major or moderate concern. Seventy-nine percent say it is, including 65 percent who say it's one of their "major concerns."
That NBC News write-up also mentioned the concerns that voters have with Biden, including his fellow Democrats:
And a third explanation is that the debate only confirmed voters’ previous perceptions of Biden, says Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
“Numbers change when new information is presented,” McInturff said. “The voters have been trying to tell us for a very long time that they have concerns about Biden serving a second term.”
Horwitt notes that the lack of change in the race is a “consequential” story — and one that’s not favorable to Biden’s campaign.
“[Biden’s] numbers were already low. And coming out of the debate, the trajectory of the race has not changed,” Horwitt said. “That’s the bigger story coming out of the debate.”
...
Additionally, a combined 79% of all voters — including 61% of Democrats — say they had "major" or "moderate" concerns that Biden, at age 81, might not have the necessary mental and physical health to be president. That is up from the 74% of all voters who said that in the September 2023 News poll and from the 76% who said it in January.
That compares with 58% of voters who said they had major or moderate concerns about Trump being convicted on 34 felony counts in New York, and with 50% who had concerns about Trump, at age 78, not having the mental and physical health to be president.
The poll was conducted July 7-9 with 800 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
With the 45-43 percent finding included, RealClearPolling has Trump overall up +2.7 against Biden, with 47.1 percent to 44.4 percent.
