With it being over a week now since former and potentially future President Donald Trump's conviction on hush money charges brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg who was out to get the leading presidential candidate, it's still worthwhile to watch how this close and competitive race is playing out in the key battleground states. Among them is President Joe Biden's home state of Pennsylvania. While it's not Trump's best state, it's still embarrassing for the incumbent president that his opponent is still doing as well as he is there, and that it's quite likely in play and could help Trump pull off a win. Back in April we addressed a poll that showed Biden up by 10 points in Pennsylvania. Granted, it's not Biden's worst state of the battlegrounds, and some polls have shown him winning it. Still, it was worthy being skeptical. It's also worthwhile to check in to see what the outlook is now, as we're now just about five months away from Election Day.
About two months later, Franklin & Marshall is out with another poll, this time with Trump in the lead. It's worth mentioning that this poll is specifically to do with Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Scott Perry is facing what could be a tough race, though it's still regarded as "Lean Republican." Nevertheless, it's still a fascinating look into how Trump is doing in one of the districts of such a key state.
A write-up from Franklin & Marshall's Berwood Yost notes that "Mr. Trump beat Joe Biden in PA-10 in the 2020 election, 51.4% to 47.2%." Now, Trump looks to have an even wider lead over Biden.
There's also this helpful note [Emphasis added]:
The June 2024 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District finds that the opinions of voters in this district mirror those of state residents as a whole in their general pessimism, their concerns about the economy, their concerns about their personal finances, and their dissatisfaction with President Biden’s job performance. In fact, voters in the 10th are more critical of President Biden than are the state’s voters as a whole. There are more registered Republicans than Democrats living in PA-10, and the district tends to prefer Republican candidates. For instance, more residents believe the country is “better off” when Republicans control the U.S. House, although these voters also express dissatisfaction with the state of politics at this time.
With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and options such as "other" and "undecided" included, Trump overall leads Biden 44-38 percent. Among the respondents interviewed before last Thursday's conviction, Trump led Biden 47-36 percent. Among the post-conviction group, they were tied at 40 percent.
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Even if there was a drop of support for Trump and a gain of support for Biden following the conviction, it still wasn't enough for Biden to overcome a candidate who has been slapped with the label of "convicted felon" and in the president's own home state, which he already won in 2020. Support for Kennedy, Jr. also increased from 8 percent to 13 percent from pre- to post-conviction.
📊 PA-10 POLL: @FandMPoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 6, 2024
🟥 Perry (inc): 45%
🟦 Stelson: 44%
⬜ Undecided: 11%
—
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟪 Other: 5%
⬜ Undecided: 4%
—
538: #57 (2.4/3.0) | 5/28-6/2 | 397 RVhttps://t.co/08jz4WnOxh pic.twitter.com/VMnuwjNYsk
Bad news continues to come for Biden with such a poll. A plurality, at 49 percent, believe Pennsylvania is headed "off on the wrong track." Not only do 27 percent of respondents say the economy is the top issue, making it the most important one, but a plurality, at 47 percent, say they are financially "worse off" than they were a year ago. We've been seeing this a lot in polls lately, at the district, state, and national level. There's also how 57 percent say he's doing a "poor job," while just 7 percent say Biden is doing an "excellent" job.
Yost also adds this note about issue importance:
Concern about the economy (31%), including unemployment and higher gas and utility prices, are mentioned as the most important and often mentioned problem facing the state, according to registered voters in the 10th district. Concerns about government and politicians (16%), taxes (8%) and education (8%) are the next most often expressed problems.
Both Trump and Biden have higher unfavorable numbers than favorable, but while merely a plurality say they have a "strongly unfavorable" view of Trump (47 percent), a majority say so about Biden (52 percent). Trump also has better favorable ratings, in that 42 percent have either a "strongly favorable" (23 percent) or "somewhat favorable" (19 percent) view of him than the 36 percent who say they have a "strongly favorable" (11 percent) or "somewhat favorable" (25 percent) view of Biden.
Perry also leads Democrat Janelle Stelson overall by 45-44 percent, and by 40-33 percent, respondents believe that "the country would be better off" if "Republicans controlled the House." Yost's write-up explained that Perry's "margins have become closer since 2018 when his district became more competitive due to redistricting."
The poll was conducted May 28-June 2 with 392 registered voters in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District. There were 225 respondents interviewed before the May 31 conviction, and 167 responders interviewed afterwards. The margin of error was at plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.
Per RealClearPolling as of early Friday morning, Trump is not only ahead of Biden in all seven of what are considered battleground states, but he's up in Pennsylvania with a lead of +2.3, putting it right in the middle when it comes to Trump's strongest states.
