On Sunday, as Guy covered, CNN released a poll bringing devastating news for President Joe Biden. For one, it showed former and potentially future President Donald Trump with a lead of +6 against Biden and other troubling signs for the president. The timing was particularly significant since it was released right after the White House Correspondent's Dinner over the weekend. But CNN's poll hasn't been the only recent one.
On Monday, the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll showed Trump with a +4 over Biden with first choice and leaners, with 52 percent support to Biden's 48 percent. With the CNN and Harvard polls included in the aggregate, Trump has a lead of +1.3 over Biden, according to RealClearPolling. That lead is growing after it saw a bit of a dip, though Trump remains in the lead overall against the deeply unpopular incumbent.
Not only does Trump have more support among Republicans (91 percent) than Biden has among Democrats (87 percent), but he also leads with Independents/Others, with 53 percent saying they'd vote for Trump over Biden.
Previous polls have claimed that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. being in the race hurts Trump more than Biden. That doesn't look to be the case here, however. Among first choice and leaners, Trump still has a lead of +4 over Biden, with 45 percent support to Biden's 41 percent. There's 14 percent for RFK Jr. Trump even holds onto his support among Independents, with 45 percent support, while 35 percent say they'd support Biden, and 25 percent say they'd support RFK Jr.
With still more third-party candidates in the race, including Jill Stein and Cornel West, Trump's lead increases even more to +6 over Biden among first choice and leaners.
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Trump has continued to go up, per the results from last month's Harvard-Harris poll.
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 29, 2024
🟥 Trump 48% [+1]
🟦 Biden 43% [-1]
—
With leans
🟥 Trump 52% [+1]
🟦 Biden 48% [-1]
—
🟥 Trump 45% [+2]
🟦 Biden 41% [+2]
🟨 RFK Jr. 14% [-3]
—
🟥 Trump 46% [+3]
🟦 Biden 39% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr 12% [-3]
🟪 Other 3%
[+/- change vs March]
—
Job… pic.twitter.com/u4wAvlKcZx
The election looks to be a close and competitive one for sure, given current circumstances.
The poll also examined voters' thoughts on the various charges against Trump. Even if Trump were to be convicted before the election, the race between Trump and Biden would still be a "dead heat."
If Trump is convicted on charges of mishandling classified documents in Florida and trying to influence the 2020 election results in the key swing state of Georgia, each candidate has 50 percent support. If he's convicted in the New York case brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg on hush money payments, Trump still has a lead over Biden, 52-48 percent. He also has 55 percent support among Independents if convicted. Bragg's case is considered the weakest of the three and is the one Trump is currently on trial for.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: "If Trump is convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents"
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 29, 2024
🟦 Biden 50%
🟥 Trump 50%
—
"If Trump is convicted for RICO in trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia"
🟦 Biden 50%
🟥 Trump 50%
—
"If Trump is… https://t.co/Voxor8cGwF pic.twitter.com/njIj6YNHCW
The matchup between Trump and Biden, as well as other candidates and in certain scenarios, isn't the only good news for the former president, though. By 10 points, 55-45 percent, voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president. A plurality, 37 percent, say they "strongly approve," while 33 percent say they "strongly disapprove," reminding us of the polarizing times we live in.
Trump also has a favorable rating of 50 percent, for a +4 net. Biden is at a -7 net, as 51 percent have an unfavorable view of him.
As a reminder, the CNN poll and a poll from The New York Times/Siena College also show voters similarly have fond memories of the Trump presidency in that they regard his term as a successful one or good for the country.
There's even more good news for Trump in that there's bad news for Biden regarding how people view the handling of his presidency, the mood of the country, and how well the Democratic Party's narratives are holding up.
Just 34 percent say that the country is on the "right track," while 58 percent say it's on the "wrong track." Those numbers are about the same regarding the economy, as 35 percent say it's on the "right track," while 58 percent say it's on the "wrong track." Further, a plurality, 48 percent, say their economic situation is "getting worse," while just 29 percent say it's "improving." Twenty-nine percent say they're "just as well off."
The bad news on the economy doesn't stop there. Over half say their personal economic situation is fair/poor, with 33 percent saying it's "fair" and 22 percent saying it's "poor." The amount who say it's fair/poor is up from the 51 percent who indicated as much in March. Thirty percent say it's "good," and just 15 percent say it's "excellent."
If voters stick to casting their ballot based on top issues like inflation and immigration, stick to their fondness for Trump's presidency, and hold their concerns for Biden, we could really expect to see a win for Trump.
"American voters are fundamentally utilitarian," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Despite legal and age issues, voters care most about how well Biden and Trump performed as president and on that measure, right now they favor Trump."
That Trump continues to lead while Biden's approval rating is "steady," at 44 percent compared to 45 percent in March and February, is also worth noting.
Biden's approval ratings on key issues are also about the same, which isn't a great sign for him. The best issue for him is the 52 percent who said they approve of his "reaction to coronavirus," though it's certainly much less of an issue than it was for the 2020 election. Biden also has 47 percent support regarding "stimulating jobs," but 48 percent still disapprove. Further, this 47 percent is a drop from the 50 percent support he had on the issue back in March.
The worst issues for the president include ones that are important to voters. The issues of immigration and price increases/inflation are the top issues, with 35 percent of voters saying they're among the most important issues facing the country. Biden only has a 38 percent approval rating on those issues, making them his worst ones. The economy is the third most important issue, with 26 percent saying so. Biden's approval rating is at 42 percent there. He also receives low marks for his handling of foreign affairs (42 percent), "dealing with violence and crime in this country" (41 percent), and the "Israeli-Hamas conflict" (39 percent).
A majority of voters continue to say they're concerned about Biden's age and fitness. By 55-45, voters say they "have doubts about his fitness for office," while 66 percent also think he's too old. A plurality, 47 percent, believe Biden is getting worse as president.
Sixty-four percent of voters also say that "Biden's public lapses" are more frequent. Even 45 percent of Democrats say so. And, when asked if "electing a President who raises questions about age, failing memory, or lapsed concentration potentially dangerous for the country," 60 percent agreed it is.
NEW POLL: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Biden's "public lapses are getting more frequent these days" 😳 pic.twitter.com/7M15bzr6K1
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 29, 2024
While a small majority says Trump has committed crimes he should be convicted of (55 percent) and that he is a threat to democracy if elected (52 percent), a larger majority, 57 percent, say that "Democrats are engaged in using the legal system in biased ways to take out a political opponent." Fifty-seven percent of Independents also say so. In contrast, 43 percent say "Prosecutions of Trump are fair and unrelated to politics." Similarly, 56 percent of voters think that the prosecutions against Trump are "politically motivated."
It's even more telling that 58 percent of voters say that "Trump's trials in heavily Democratic jurisdictions like New York City or Atlanta Georgia should be moved to a new location by the justice system to avoid real or perceived bias," which includes 77 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Independents, but also 40 percent of Democrats.
We could see changes in our country and the world, as well as the polls, between now and November 5, especially as Biden and his reelection campaign continue to get desperate. Time will tell, but as more polls like this come out, there looks to be reason to have cautious optimism.
The Harvard-Harris poll was conducted April 24-26 with 1,961 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
