When it comes to the polls showing that former and potentially future President Donald Trump has an edge over President Joe Biden for a hypothetical rematch of 2020, it's worth reminding that a conviction or convictions against Trump could be what decides the election. The situation is presently looking so bad for Biden, though, that any such conviction or convictions might not matter so much in the long run. Attorney Alan Dershowitz--a Democrat who has voted against Trump multiple times--had some interesting tidbits to share about the likely scenario that there will be a conviction. Then there's the media. On Saturday, POLITICO went with a headline of "Why a Trump conviction might not save Biden’s reelection."
Not only is the headline a pleasant surprise, but so is the start of the piece, which reads:
It’s the go-to refrain for Democrats watching Joe Biden fall behind Donald Trump in polls: Just wait until Trump is convicted.
Yes, Biden’s historically unpopular. Yes, views of his job performance are growing increasingly negative. But if a jury of Trump’s peers in Manhattan, or South Florida, or Atlanta or Washington convicts him before Election Day, they say, it would have a dramatic impact on the race.
They’re probably wrong.
The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points. That could be important in another close election, but it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for — or Biden may need if his numbers don’t improve.
The piece points to specific signs of hope for Trump, in the form of polls from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times/Siena College which point to how convictions won't have enough of an effect. This is the case at the national level as well as in specific states, such as in Tennessee with a Vanderbilt University poll.
There's also the reminder of how Trump's also bounced back from the "Access Hollywood" tape, when he went on to win the election a month later against Hillary Clinton in 2016, as well as how he's still the frontunner for the nomination after the 2020 loss to Biden and January 6.
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And, as the piece points out, polls saying people think Trump shouldn't run if convicted are different than saying it means he'll lose enough voters and the election:
There are a few polls that suggest a Trump conviction could be more significant, but they mostly gloss over the polarization of the electorate. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll this month, 64 percent of Americans said they would at least somewhat agree with the statement that Trump “should not run for president” if he’s convicted of a crime. But saying he shouldn’t run is a far cry from saying they wouldn’t vote for him with only a limited number of choices on the ballot.
My colleagues at POLITICO Magazine commissioned their own polling with Ipsos back in August. Roughly a third of respondents, 32 percent, said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump — far from unanimity.
Polls also point to how voters don't exactly want a rematch of 2020 for 2024, but that is what we are likely to get. That's the exact point made to close the piece. "Most Americans already don’t want Trump — or Biden, for that matter — to run, despite the overwhelming likelihood they will be the nominees," it reads. "If 2024 is a 2020 rematch, it will be a contest between two candidates the country doesn’t particularly want. And voters appear to be pricing in Trump’s legal woes already."
It's a bit of a pleasant shock that this headline was not only used at all, but that it's still up after days later. Then again, perhaps POLITICO is looking to provide a warning of sorts to Biden and his reelection campaign?
In sharing the article from his X account, Charlie Kirk noted the outlet had "wave[d] the white flag."
Politico waves the white flag, admits a Trump conviction probably won’t save Biden.https://t.co/wdHpYow5uJ
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) December 16, 2023
POLITICO's X account received a particularly high amount of replies, including from those quite incensed that the outlet would dare say such a thing.
It’s clear as day the media is aggressively rooting for Trump to win and will do anything they can to help him.
— MMO (@MLKMXObama) December 16, 2023
The media is complicit. And worse than useless.
While that post from the user claiming the media want to help Trump might seem outrageous, top Democrats are also blaming the media. The polls are overall terrible for Biden, from his approval rating, to his fitness to serve as president, to how he fares against Trump, or really any Republican nominee.
As DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison claimed to MSNBC's Jonathan Capehart, the message of what good the Biden administration has supposedly done for the American people isn't "getting through" because of what stories the media choose to cover.
DNC Chair Jaime Harrison says it's the media's fault that Biden's message isn't "getting through" to Americans pic.twitter.com/lyGCWH5JIe
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 17, 2023
The party narrative, though, has overall been terrible. And this includes Biden himself and the kind of demands he and First Lady Jill Biden make of the staff around them, with Spencer highlighting quite the reveal from The Washington Post. They've made similar demands of Biden's staff that Harrison makes of the media.
"For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and friends they are frustrated by the president’s low approval rating and the polls that show him trailing former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination — and in recent weeks, they have grown upset that they are not making more progress," the report mentioned.
"Well, Americans are smarter than Biden's messaging wizards because they're not buying Team Biden's urging to not believe their lying eyes," Spencer aptly pointed out.
As of early Tuesday morning, RealClearPolitics (RCP) points to Trump with a lead of +3.5. It's no wonder that Biden is less than thrilled, though he probably ought to get used to it, including and especially as his plans to weaponize his administration against his top political opponent could fail to gain much traction or even backfire.
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