Another Senate Race Just Got Better for Republicans

We've been hearing that control for the Senate is, at best for the Republicans, a "Toss-Up," and that Democrats are favored to hold onto their majority. On Thursday, though, Decision Desk HQ changed its ratings for what will be North Carolina's open seat from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Republican."

Republican Ted Budd, who is running for the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), now has a 65.8 percent chance of winning compared to Democrat Cheri Beasley, who has a 34.2 percent chance winning. This is the highest chance Budd has had since his 71 percent chance of winning from August 9. 

DDHQ Forecast Update: 9/8

Polls:
- NC Senate via Trafalgar: Budd+2.8
- WA Senate via PPP: Murray+9

Generic Ballot:
- NBC/Marist: D+4
- GSG/Navigator Research: D+5

Rating Changes:
- NC Senate: TOSS UP --> LEAN R
Budd's chances move up 65.8% (+4.6 delta)https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL pic.twitter.com/ekDCmBpI0I

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 8, 2022

The change for this race comes after a poll from the Trafalgar Poll was released on Wednesday showing Budd with a lead of nearly 3 percentage points. That poll was conducted September 1-4, with 1,079 likely general election voters and a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. 

New @trafalgar_group #NCSen #poll (9/01-04) shows #Budd maintaining 3-point lead. #NCpol

46.6% @TedBuddNC
43.8% @CheriBeasleyNC
1.8% @ShannonBrayNC
0.9% @MatthewPHoh
1.3% Other
5.6% Und

See report: https://t.co/yL8jnFgizn pic.twitter.com/UkZ9fLLNtk

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 7, 2022

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MIDTERMS 2022

A post from Nick Field for Decision Desk HQ from September 1, even before the race was changed to reflect Budd being in favor, includes this race as one of "The 8 Races That Will Decide Control of the Senate."

"The good news for the GOP is that Budd has led most polling throughout the year," Field writes, though he also warns "this is a race Republicans should win and a loss here would be a terrible blow for the party."

Additionally, it appears that Decision Desk HQ's overall forecast for the Senate is also changing, and not in the Democrats' favor. As of Thursday, Democrats have a 58.5 percent chance of retaining control, despite their chances being in the low to mid 60s in previous recent months.