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Tipsheet

New Poll Could Spell Trouble for Raphael Warnock

AP Photo/Ben Gray, Pool

With the November midterm elections quickly approaching, now less than three months away, one of the races to watch remains the Georgia's Senate race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee. Many regard the seat as a "Toss-Up," including FiveThirtyEight, as well as Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. 

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The race appeared to be potentially even more so in Walker's favor on Monday, with the release of results from The Phillips Academy Poll, which shows him ahead with 45.2 percent support, in comparison to Warnock's 43.6 percent. Such a lead is less than the margin of error. Eleven percent said are in the "Other/No preference" category. 

The poll's headline indicates that "Republicans Lead Across the Board Due to Suburban Support." When it comes to specific breakdowns, Walker is up 5.1 percent among suburban voters, described as "a key voting bloc in the 2020 election." He's up 20 percent among rural voters, where he "receives most of his support from."

It's especially telling that neither candidate received 50 percent, which means that a runoff election would be triggered. Warnock was ultimately elected via a runoff election on January 5, 2021, beating former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) by 51 to 49 percent. He had won more votes than any other candidate in the special election held on November 3, 2020, with 32.9 percent to Loeffler's 25.9 percent, but that he came in with less than 50 percent nevertheless triggered a runoff.

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The poll's write-up makes note of both a potential runoff, and the significance of the 11 percent of undecided voters. "At the moment, neither candidate has 50% support, so if the election were held today, both Walker and Warnock would advance to a runoff. With 11% of voters undecided, however, this race is still up in the air," the write-up reads.

Stacey Abrams, who is once more running against Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) in a rematch from 2018, also faced trouble in that poll. Kemp has an even more sizable lead against her than Walker does against Warnock, leading 51.4 percent to Abrams' 43.5 percent of support.

While that race too once was considered a "Toss-Up," in recent months it's since gone further in Kemp's favor. As I also covered earlier today, Abrams has even found herself in trouble with fact-checkers too, for her false pro-abortion claims that Kemp "wants to investigate and punish women for having miscarriages."

This poll was conducted August 3-7, surveying 971 registered voters in Georgia. 

Such a seat is very much considered one to watch. Warnock is considered a particularly vulnerable incumbent, according to Roll Call, CNN, and The Hill, with USA Today and POLITICO considering it a race to watch. Kurt Schlichter also praised Walker in a column last week for Townhall encouraging people not to give up hope about winning back the Senate. 

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In a Senate that is currently 50-50, with Democrats only having the majority because Vice President Kamala Harris acts as a tie breaker, control of the body could come down to Georgia. While some pundits now claim that Democrats are favored to win the midterms, especially when it comes to the Senate, control of the body is still very much considered a "Toss-Up."

"Warnock" was trending over Twitter on Monday, in part due to the poll. 

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