I recently highlighted a warning from CNN's Chris Cillizza about President Joe Biden's abysmal poll numbers, specifically out of Iowa, a key swing state. Just a few days later, Cillizza issued another warning that "Joe Biden's poll numbers are plummeting at exactly the wrong time," only this time there wasn't any hopeful insight attached to it, and it wasn't centered around polling from one state.
In writing on Tuesday that "This poll should terrify Democrats ahead of 2022," not every paragraph from Cillizza had bad news attached to it, just most of it.
He did write this:
The best news out of this poll for Biden and Democrats is that it is September 2021, not September 2022. Which means that Biden -- and the Democratic-controlled Congress -- have time to turn his numbers around, likely by finding a way to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and some sort of major budget proposal (although both of those bills have an uncertain path forward at the moment).
And even still, it came with a caveat:
But if the President's numbers in Iowa are anything close to where they are today, it is an absolute disaster for Democrats -- and would presage the near-certain loss of a large number of House seats (and their majority) come next November
Cillizza's more recent warning, from Thursday, mentioned a Gallup poll, which I also covered. The poll shows 43 percent approve of how the president is handling his job, compared to 53 who disapprove. A big takeaway from that poll, and a really bad sign for Biden is that just 37 percent of Independents approve.
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As Cillizza highlighted:
It's been a rapid descent for Biden. As late as June, 56% approved of how he was doing while only 40% disapproved. The decline began in July (50% approve/46% disapprove) and in August roughly the same number approved (49%) as disapproved (48%).
The decline in Biden's numbers is almost entirely attributable to independents souring on him. In June, 55% of those not affiliated with either party approved of how Biden was handling the presidency. Today that number sits at just 37%. As Gallup's Megan Brenen notes: "Two-thirds of Biden's slide among independents since he took office has occurred in the past three months."
He also referenced just how close Biden is to Trump with such approval ratings. "Biden's struggles of late put him in company he would prefer not to keep: Only Donald Trump -- at 37% -- among recent presidents had a lower approval rating at this point of their presidency," Cillizza wrote.
What Cillizza failed to mention, though, is that there is a poll where Trump outperforms Biden. While addressing that Gallup poll, I also wrote about a Harvard Caps/Harris Poll which showed that 48 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Trump while 46 percent have a favorable view of Biden. Further, 49 percent have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 47 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump. Voters also say the Trump was a better president than Biden has been, by 51 percent to 49 percent.
When it comes to Cillizza's headline, he addresses why it's "exactly the wrong time" for the poll numbers to be "plummeting?" It can affect other races, including the midterms, especially with what else is going on that's contributing to Biden's poor poll ratings in the first place:
Biden's polling ebb could not come at a worse time for his presidency. Right now, Congress is embroiled in a series of critical fights -- most notably over a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and a $3.5 trillion budget bill, which, taken together, form the crux of Biden's entire first-term agenda. There's also consternation -- and confusion -- over raising the debt limit and funding the government.
All of these crises would be more manageable for Biden if he was in a stronger position with the American public. If, say, he was at 55% or even 60% approval, Biden's ability to cajole warring moderate and liberal forces in the House would be significantly higher. All politicians are aware of the leverage I(or lack thereof) that a president has over them -- and act accordingly.
The other purely political problem that Biden's declining numbers creates is that Democrats in swing districts and states start to get very jumpy when they see the incumbent president of their party struggling in the polls. History tells us that the first midterm election for a president's party is usually tough for his party in Congress. And that goes double when the president's approval rating is below 50% -- as Biden's is now.
What that likely leads to is individual Democratic members looking for ways to break with Biden in hopes of convincing their voters that there is some significant distance between themselves and Biden. (Side note: This attempted distancing almost never works.)
All of it is bad for Biden and his party in Congress. The confluence of his faltering poll numbers with the single most critical week, legislatively speaking, of his presidency creates a vicious cycle that makes a positive outcome for Democrats less and less likely.
Speaking of that distancing, and those other races, we've seen that on display with how the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), in their campaign push for Andrew Maneval, a candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives, photoshopped the Biden-Harris logo out.
Democrats have such a narrow majority to begin with. In the 50-50 Senate they only are in control because Vice President Kamala Harris serves as a tie breaking vote. And in the House, the Democratic majority is also in the single digits.
Thanks to history, and these disastrous poll numbers for Biden, as Cillizza concedes, it looks like the GOP has a lot to look forward to in 2022.
