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New Poll Shows Harris Losing Support, While Another Shows an 'Exceedingly Close Race'

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 25, 2024 10:15 AM

There's been plenty of recent polls coming in, including two top ones worth examining for Tuesday. We've said it plenty of times that not only is this election looking to be close and competitive, but Vice President Kamala Harris is not where she needs to be against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, even with her being a bit ahead in the averages. 

One of those polls, from CNN shows Harris leading Trump by 48-47 percent among likely voters. They're tied at 47 percent each among registered voters. 

"Harris and Trump locked in exceedingly close presidential race," read the CNN headline. The opening paragraphs reiterated that as well:

(CNN) — The race for president between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is exceedingly close, with Harris’ support resting on stronger personal appeal, while Trump draws on a die-hard base and a wide advantage on handling the economy to run about even despite less positive views of him, his empathy and temperament.

Among likely voters nationwide, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds 48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race. About 2% say they plan to vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver and 1% for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Both Harris and Trump hold positive support from the majority of their backers – 72% of Trump’s supporters say their choice is more for him than against Harris, while 60% of Harris’ supporters say their choice is more for her than against him.

The poll's write-up highlights plenty of negatives for Trump, such as with personal attributes and how Harris has risen to higher favorable ratings, though both candidates still have higher unfavorable ratings than their favorable ratings in such a poll. Further, other polls have shown Trump with higher favorable ratings.

But, if voters can look past that, Trump's handling of the issues and how voters viewed his presidency look much better for him.

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As this poll and others have shown, voters looking back consider Trump's presidency to have been a success, with 51 percent of registered voters saying so in this poll. Forty-nine percent said it was "a failure."

The economy is considered by far to be the top issue, with 41 percent of likely voters saying so. That brings more good news for Trump, as he once more holds a double digit lead on who likely voters trust more to handle the issue, by 50-39 percent over Harris. He similarly leads by double digits on immigration, 49-35 percent. Harris leads by 47-40 percent with likely voters on "protecting democracy."

Fifty-one percent of likely voters say each candidate has "policy positions on major issues" are exactly what they want or close enough, while 49 percent say such positions are not what they want in a president. However, more of these likely voters say those views are exactly what they want when it comes to Trump, 29 percent compared to18 percent who say so about Harris.

As the write-up mentions [Emphasis added]:

But notably, in this divided race, 51% say each of them has policy positions on major issues that align with what they want in a president, with more saying Trump’s are exactly what they want in a president (29% for Trump vs. 18% for Harris).

That’s true even as Trump is more broadly seen as “too extreme” in his views and positions than Harris is (54% of likely voters say Trump is, 42% that Harris is). A small group of those who see Trump as too extreme are voting for him anyway: He holds the support of 10% of likely voters who consider his views and policies to be too extreme, while Harris has the backing of just 4% of those likely voters who feel she is too extreme.

Trump also benefits from the 51% of likely voters who say that looking back on his time as president, it was more of a success than a failure. And Harris may be impeded by the widespread perception of Biden’s time as president as a failure (61% see it that way, and only 19% in that group say they support Harris for president).

Likely voters overall say they trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Even among those who say Trump’s views and policies are too extreme, 15% say they trust him over Harris to handle the economy and the same share say so on immigration.

In his Tuesday episode of "The Tony Kinnett Cast," host Tony Kinnett focused on that mention of tying Harris to President Joe Biden, noting how this key takeaway brings "some really, really rough news, extremely, extremely rough news."

Of course, Harris should be tied to the president and the Biden-Harris administration, considering that she is the sitting vice president, and the Trump-Vance campaign would be smart to focus on this. She thus can't be "this agent of change," Kinnett reminded. 

The poll shows that just 37 percent of registered voters consider Biden's presidency to have been "a success," while 63 percent say it's been "a failure."

CNN's own Scott Jennings also brought up the 51 percent figure for Trump and the 37 percent figure for Biden. 

"There is something going on where people are remembering what [Trump] did, how he did it, and they're comparing it to what's happening right now," Jennings continued. "So, you can cherry pick these individual statements or policies. But if you look at the comparative and you look at our own polling, you realize he's hit upon an economic vein that is working for him in this election. He beats Harris on it, and he is viewed as a better president than Biden and Harris."

"NewsNight" host Abby Phillip acknowledged the figures on the economy as well, which were put up on the screen, noting "there's a lot of work for [Harris] to do here, a lot of work." It remains to be seen if she'll close the gap on such a strong issue for Trump, though, and less than six weeks before the election. 

PHILLIP: Yes, 50 percent say that Trump is better to handle the economy. Just 39 percent say that of Harris. There's a lot of work for her to do here, a lot of work.

Such a poll was conducted September 19-22, with 2,074 voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

Then there's how a Quinnipiac poll even showed the race was tied among likely voters, at 48 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. In a full field, Trump leads 48-47 percent. Harris previously led in the Quinnipiac poll, 49-47 percent, which was supposed to be a sort of post-DNC bump from last month. 

What's also telling is that not only do coveted Independents favor Trump over Harris by 48-46 percent, but Hispanics also favor Trump by 52-46 percent. In 2020, the Biden-Harris ticket won Hispanics by 59-38 percent. Kinnett also highlighted how significant it was that Trump has such support among Hispanics in this poll.

This poll headline also focused on how it's such a close race, mentioning "2024 Presidential Race: Can't Get Much Closer, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds," with the write-up mentioning that the race "remains too close to call."

It's not just Harris' numbers that are going down. In August, 75 percent of likely voters said they were "very enthusiastic" to vote for the Democratic nominee, with that number now at 70 percent. The amount of likely voters who were "very enthusiastic" to vote for Trump in August was at 68 percent, and that number is now at 71 percent. 

"On the backstretch of the race to Election Day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoke their supporter's enthusiasm all the way to the finish line. A slight shift suggests the Harris crowd is not roaring as loudly as it was last month," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy is quoted as saying. 

Such a poll also shows Trump and Harris with the same favorable numbers, at 47 percent each, though Harris has a 48 percent unfavorable rating, while Trump is at 50 percent. 

This poll also shows better news for Trump when it comes to a crucial question on personal traits. He actually leads Harris by 49-48 percent when it comes to who likely voters say "cares more about the needs and problems of people like you."

Like in the CNN poll, Trump still leads Harris on the economy (52-45 percent) and immigration (53-45 percent), albeit by smaller margins. Harris also has a more narrow lead, though, when it comes to likely voters favoring her on "preserving democracy," by 50-47 percent. 

Madeline has been covering how Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris earlier this month, following the ABC News debate, is backfiring. That also looks to be the case here. Seventy-six percent say it does not make a difference in their enthusiasm about Harris' candidacy, while 13 percent say it actually makes them less enthusiastic, compared to just 9 percent who says it makes them more enthusiastic.

Such a poll was conducted September 19-22 with 1,728 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. 

These polls and the close nature of this race, were a trending topic over X on Tuesday, with many referencing that Quinnipiac poll in particular. 

As of Wednesday morning, RealClearPolling shows Harris up +2.1 against Trump. On September 25, 2020, now President Joe Biden was up +6.7 over Trump, while Hillary Clinton was up by +3.1 against Trump on September 25, 2016. Biden didn't win by nearly as much, and Trump beat Clinton.

This, Kinnett stressed, is why we can't even say this race is "kind of a toss-up," as he pointed to our own Kurt Schlichter's interview with the "Ruthless" podcast in that Republicans would actually be celebrating to tie with Democrats, with this being "the best Donald Trump has ever done."