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There's Been a Forecast Change in This Key Senate Race

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 13, 2024 2:00 PM

Republicans still have a good chance of taking back control of the Senate this cycle, with Decision Desk HQ predicting a 71 percent chance. That's because the seats the GOP looks to pick up are vacant due to retirements or held by vulnerable Democratic incumbents running for reelection. 

Chief among the seats most likely to see a flip is in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester will face Republican Tim Sheehy. There is such a thing as an incumbency advantage, and the race was once considered a "Toss-Up." 

However, earlier this week, Cook Political Report (CPR) changed its forecasts so that the race favors Sheehy with a "Lean Republican" rating. It was a move that reporter Jessica Taylor called a "major shift."

Further, this comes with Republicans already starting at what CPR believes will be a 50-50 map, putting the party automatically in the majority if the Trump-Vance ticket is elected. 

Decision Desk HQ, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have also changed their ratings to favor Sheehy in his race against Tester in a "Lean" or "Tilt Republican" race. 

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The National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) was all too happy to note the shift on Thursday. "Jon Tester is melting down because he can see the writing on the wall: Montanans are tired of being lied to and are sick of his far-left voting record," NRSC Spokeswoman Maggie Abboud said in a statement.

As the NRSC statement references, Tester appears to be in denial about his chances, telling reporters he feels good about his race and pointing to supposed inconsistencies in polls. This has been a tactic of his before, namely when a poll from American Pulse Research & Polling, commissioned by NonStop LOCAL, was released last month and showed Sheehy leading Tester by 50.8 percent to Tester's 44.7 percent. 

Whether Tester likes it or not, the NRSC and Sheehy, especially in recent days, have looked to tie Tester to Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Sheehy also shared a Semafor article on Tuesday that stated, "The 2024 Senate battle is still coming down to Montana."

The AARP polling mentioned by both Tester and the Semafor article shows Sheehy leading Tester by +6 in a head-to-head matchup, 51-45 percent, and by +8 in the full field, 49-41 percent. Guy mentioned this polling last week in his analysis piece, "Is the Senate Picture Brightening for Republicans?"

"So at the moment, it’s fair to view Montana as the state with the highest chance of being the Senate majority-maker in November, for either party," Burgess Everett noted in the Semafor piece, though this was tellingly before the race forecast changes came in. 

Trump meanwhile leads in Montana by anywhere from 14 to 20 points, according to various polls including from FiveThirtyEight. Per averages from RealClearPolling, Trump is up +17 against Harris in the Treasure State. The AARP poll mentioned above has Trump leading by +15 against Harris. Such coattails could very likely help Sheehy. 

While Tester won reelection in 2018, he faced now-Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, who was considered a particularly weak candidate. Back in 2018, Rosendale lost to Tester by 3.5 points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points and in 2020 by 16.4 points. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who currently chairs the NRSC and has supported Sheehy from the start, also won reelection in 2020 by 10 points. Rosendale briefly ran for the Senate seat this cycle, despite concerns from fellow Republicans. Although he announced his intentions in early February, he dropped out less than a week later. 

Many of the other vulnerable Democratic incumbents are still in slightly better positions when it comes to the rankings, although they may not be for long. 

One race to watch at the presidential and Senate level is Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring. She'll be replaced by Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a fellow Democrat, or former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. CPR considers the race to be a "Toss-Up," while other forecasters give Slotkin a slight advantage with a "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic" rating.

On Thursday, Cygnal released polling out of Michigan showing that Slotkin only leads Rogers by 44-43 percent. The poll was conducted August 28-September 1 with 600 likely general election voters. Harris also leads Trump by 47-46 percent.

"Despite some prevailing inaccurate narratives across the state, Republicans are in a strong position among Michiganders," offered Chris Lane, the pollster. "Not only are Republicans trusted more on the key issues, but they are also seen as an important check on Governor Whitmer’s liberal policies. Republicans hold a strong four-point lead on the generic ballot for the Michigan House of Representatives, teeing them up for success on Election Day. It’s also notable Republicans are gaining more ground with Independent voters who express the most discontent with the direction of the state. These conditions are good news for President Trump and Senate candidate Mike Rogers because both are within just one point of their Democrat opponents as undecided Independents will likely be the deciding group in these tight races. Remember, Joe Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020 so these numbers indicate Democrats are on the ropes and will have a much harder time replicating those results with the Harris-Walz ticket."