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Here's How the Race Between Trump and Biden Looks in the Battleground States

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  July 14, 2024 6:00 PM

Multiple polls were released on Sunday, which has already been a considerably busy day after former and potentially future President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt during his rally on Saturday in Butler County, Pennsylvania. The presidential election will likely be decided by voters in a handful of key battleground states, making those polls in particular ones to watch. 

President Joe Biden won the election in 2020 due to wins in those key states, which included some pretty narrow margins. For 2024, however, Trump has been leading in those key states, which puts him on track to win this November. 

One of the polls released on Sunday came from CBS News/YouGov America and shows Trump up by 50 percent to Biden's 48 percent. Not only is Trump leading, but his chances have also improved since last month's poll from CBS News/YouGov was released. With that poll, Biden enjoyed 50 percent in the battleground states to Trump's 49 percent. 

The write-up from CBS News highlights how the poll was conducted and released on the eve of the RNC taking place later this week. The convention will be in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, which is one of the key battleground states included in the poll. Candidates tend to enjoy a boost after their nominating conventions.

"Donald Trump and the Republican Party will begin their convention week with a narrow but consistent advantage across the battleground states, which would translate into Trump being better positioned to win in the Electoral College right now," the write-up mentioned.

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Of the seven battleground states, Trump leads in all of them among likely voters. In all of them but one, North Carolina, where he leads with 52 percent to Biden's 48 percent, Trump leads with 51 percent to Biden's 49 percent. He has such a lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

In states like Michigan and Wisconsin, this is hopeful news. Such a lead, especially since it's within a margin of error, seems a bit small in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. These, along with North Carolina, are among Trump's best states. Still, a lead is a lead, and RealClearPolling has Trump leading in all of them, although this CBS News/YouGov poll is not included at this time. 

This isn't the only area where Trump has a lead. As we've seen in multiple polls, Trump enjoys an enthusiasm edge. While 93 percent of Republican registered voters say they will "definitely vote," that number is 85 percent among Democrats. Eighty percent of Independents say so. With leaners included, Independents look to be supporting Trump over Biden, 51-47 percent.

"As has been the case for months, Trump benefits from the larger percentage of Republicans who say they're likely to vote than Democrats to say they'll turn out this year," the write-up points out, noting the pattern. 

Another theme that we've seen in poll after poll is how voters don't think Biden "has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president." Among all registered voters, a plurality, at 44 percent, believe "only Donald Trump" does. Similarly, a plurality of Independents, at 42 percent, feel the same way. A strong majority of Republicans, at 88 percent feel that much, while a plurality of Democrats, at 49 percent, believe "only Joe Biden" does. 

Particularly catastrophic to a narrative that the Biden campaign has depended on ad nauseum has been about the supposed threat to democracy that Trump poses. While a plurality of voters believe that both Biden and Trump getting elected would "make U.S. democracy weaker," the margins are much better for Trump than Biden.

Forty-six percent of voters believe Trump winning in 2024 would "make U.S. democracy weaker," while 42 percent say it would "make U.S. democracy stronger." Those numbers are at 45-38 percent among Independents. However, 47 percent of voters believe Biden winning in 2024 would make our democracy "weaker," while just 37 percent say it would make it "stronger." The numbers are even worse among Independents, 48-27 percent. 

This is a finding we've seen in other polls for months, including and especially how Independents believe Biden would more so weaken democracy. 

Of course, after the shooting that targeted Trump, we're seeing in real time how Trump is not the threat to democracy Democrats claim he is. Former Attorney General Bill Barr made remarks on Saturday night stressing as much. While Barr has had his issues with Trump, he revealed in April he will be voting for Trump, and disputed the narrative that Trump is the bigger threat. 

The poll was conducted July 5-12, with 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The RNC isn't the only major event in question that could affect the race, or perhaps not affect it. We've seen Trump convicted of 34 felony charges in a New York City "trial" on May 30, as well as a favorable decision from the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this month in the Trump v. United States case on presidential immunity. His July 11 sentencing has even been delayed, and another criminal case against him, brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith, also looks to be "gutted."

There was also the debate on June 27 where we saw a disastrous performance from Biden. As a result, there have been calls from fellow Democrats for the president to step aside, though the assassination attempt against Trump may indicate such a movement is over or has at least lost some steam. 

As the write-up also mentioned:

Things essentially haven't changed since the immediate aftermath of the debate, when sentiment shifted slightly toward Trump, so this remains a fairly stable contest in that regard.

These polls and estimates were completed before the shooting at the Trump rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.

As mentioned above, one of the states polled where Trump enjoys a lead is in Pennsylvania, where the shooting took place on Saturday night. The commonwealth was already going to be in the news, as a key swing state, and now it looks to be even more relevant.

Although the poll is not included in these most recent numbers for Pennsylvania, RealClearPolling nevertheless has Trump up +5.3 there against Biden. In 2020, Biden narrowly won his home state with 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 48.8 percent. Although Trump narrowly beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, Pennsylvania has voted for a Democrat otherwise since the 1992 election. 

Pollster Frank Luntz put out a thread on Sunday highlighting how Pennsylvania matters even more now.