Tipsheet

Biden Takes a National Polling Lead for the First Time in 2024...or Does He?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  June 21, 2024 10:01 AM

Perhaps you've heard the news that for the first time in calendar year 2024, President Joe Biden has taken the lead in FiveThirtyEight's national polling average.  It's true -- thanks especially to a Fox News survey showing the current president pulling ahead of the former president by two percentage points, Biden has edged into an extremely slight lead over Trump, in the aggregate.  Let's take a look at that Fox poll first, then peek at the new polling average, as of late Thursday.  Stats guru Nate Silver is calling out Democratic partisans for excitedly touting the Fox numbers, as many of them dismissed the exact same outfit's Trump-favorable results in key swing states just two weeks ago.  But now they're abandoning their skepticism because they like what this top line outcome shows:


And here's that aforementioned average, visualized:


Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' average (again as of late last night) has Trump still ahead by a hair, and with a marginally larger national advantage within an expanded, five-candidate field.  Whether you want to believe one average over the other, what's clear is that this is an extremely close race.  If the nationwide 'popular vote' is similarly very close in November, that would likely be good news for Trump, who lost on that metric by 4.5 points in 2020, but came within approximately 44,000 votes (spread across three critical states) of being re-elected.  He lost the 'popular vote' to Hillary Clinton by about two points in 2016 and famously won the presidency.  Looking at the electoral college race -- i.e., the one that really counts -- Trump remains in the lead.  In fact, new swing state polling out this week gave Trump a lead in every battleground surveyed, with Minnesota now tied:


With expanded fields, Trump is ahead by four in Arizona, eight in Georgia, two in Michigan, three in Nevada, three in Pennsylvania, and two in Wisconsin.  He's even up by a nose (one point) In Minnesota.  For what it's worth, Trump's internal polling also shows him up a bit in that state, while a different public survey gives Biden a modest lead there.  Other state-level polls offer an interesting patchwork.  As we mentioned a few days ago, Trump's eye-popping 18-point lead in Iowa, according to one of the best polls out there, points to his unprecedented strength in that state.  In the red state of Texas, Trump looks to be in pretty comfortable shape, with Ted Cruz also looking fairly strong (+11) for re-election:


Cruz's opponent, incidentally, just got hit across the head with his own words:

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Lots of Democrats are going to be running as "independent"-minded bipartisan figures who've "stood up" to Biden on key issues.  Look at their actual voting records (Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Jon Tester in Montana, etc), and you'll see lockstep partisans.  Republicans need to aggressively prosecute that case.  Then there's this fascinating poll out of deep blue New York, in case you missed it:


I'm skeptical, of course, but (1) Siena is well-regarded, and (2) theirs is not the only recent data set showing New York within single digits. Notable. And here's why it's even remotely close at this point:

The Siena survey found that Trump is supported by 29% of black New Yorkers and 26% of Latino residents ahead of his Nov. 5 rematch against 81-year-old Biden. In 2020, Trump — who at the time also claimed he was on the cusp of winning New York — was supported by just 6% of black New Yorkers and 22% of Hispanics, according to exit polling...Biden narrowly leads Trump among Jewish voters with 52% support, while the former president has 46% backing in the demographic — following months of vacillation by Biden over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.


I'll leave you with fresh polling commissioned by AARP, surveying dozens of the most competitive House races in the nation.  The results are as tight as can be the Congressional ballot (tied), with Trump up two points across these districts (and five points in the wider field):


Overall, next week's debate looms large.