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Biden Ought Not to Get Too Excited About Any 'Small Shift' in the Polls

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  June 06, 2024 2:00 PM

In the days following the conviction of former and potentially future President Donald Trump, polls have shown not much has changed in the race between him and President Joe Biden. That's a problem for the deeply unpopular incumbent as he seeks reelection. Even with. what small bumps he may have received, it remains to be seen if that will last, and also if it will be enough come Novemher. Where the races to really watch have been and remain in the key battleground states, and we're seeing similar results there too.

Back in April and May, The New York Times/Siena College poll found good news for Trump, especially in those key swing states with that May poll. After connecting with nearly 2,000 voters who took the surveys previously, The New York Times is now reporting on a "Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict." 

As the piece goes on to read [Emphasis added]:

It’s one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s conviction: Did the verdict change anyone’s mind?

Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal “yes.”

In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records.

The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.

Even with that "small shift," Trump is still at 47 percent, while Biden is at 46 percent. Trump was previously at 48 percent while Biden was at 45 percent.

When it comes to Trump supporters reconsidering their vote, 93 percent say they're sticking by the presumptive Republican nominee, which is a comforting figure. But, as the piece goes on to warn, 7 percent could still be significant with what looks to be a close and competitive election [Emphasis added]:

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But in a close election, losing 7 percent of your supporters can be decisive. In recent polls, Mr. Biden either leads or is within two points of Mr. Trump in states and districts worth the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. A potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trump’s former supporters — 3 percent — now told us they’ll back Mr. Biden, while another 4 percent say they’re now undecided. (The overall shift is closer to two percentage points because it also accounts for the smaller slice of voters who moved away from Mr. Biden when contacted again.)

It's no wonder that Democrats are desperate to hang that "convicted felon" label on Trump. But, that may still not be enough for Biden to win come November. The report did say that the bump for Biden was "equivocal." As is further mentioned:

With five months to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for Mr. Trump to regain his standing. The verdict is still fresh in the minds of voters, and shifts in public opinion in the wake of a major news event can prove fleeting. The study offers no reason to assume that Mr. Trump has lost these voters for good, and many still haven’t made up their minds about the verdict.

A plurality of those we called back for the study approved of the verdict, but a sizable share said they had not heard enough to say whether they approved or disapproved of the outcome. More than a quarter said they’d paid little or no attention to Mr. Trump’s legal battle.

The findings depict an unsettled electorate, one with many disengaged voters who might swing over the months ahead. Overall, 8 percent of respondents offered a different response in the presidential race than they had when they were first interviewed no more than eight weeks ago — a tally far higher than many might imagine in today’s polarized country. Even Mr. Biden retained only 96 percent of his former supporters, with 1.5 percent of those former supporters saying they would now back Mr. Trump, despite the news of his conviction, and the rest moving to undecided.

As discussed in Tuesday's VIP, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who looks to be on Trump's short list for a running mate since he's reportedly received vetting paperwork, fittingly argued that Americans are more worried about issues such as inflation. That isn't looking too good for the president, given that it's typically the most important issue to voters but also ranks as one of Biden's worst ones.

Further, the write-up also highlights how Trump's supporters appear to be more enthusiastic about voting for Trump. If the Trump campaign, his surrogates, and allies can get that energized narrative about Biden taking advantage of a weaponized and politicized justice system to go after political opponents to catch on with others, that could certainly help Trump. Then again, it will be interesting to see how this is used with the narrative of how everyday Americans don't much care about the trial, and if such talking points will complement each other or clash. 

Results from the latest poll thatThe Economist/YouGov released on Wednesday also showed that Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic than Biden ones. While 66 percent of Trump supporters said they're "extremely enthusiastic" (47 percent) or "very enthusiastic" (19 percent), just 53 percent of his supporters said they were "extremely enthusiastic" (36 percent) or "very enthusiastic." A plurality of Trump supporters, at 34 percent, also believed that the verdict will have a "very positive" effect on his chances. 

This New York Times write-up has some specific findings that look like they could very good for Trump, and quite bad for Biden. "Many of [Trump's] previously disengaged supporters seemed newly energized by the verdict, with 18 percent of his supporters who previously said they were unlikely to vote now “almost certain” to do so, compared with just 3 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters who moved into that category," it mentions. 

The poll was conducted June 3-4 with 1,897 registered voters who had previously been contacted to participate in other surveys. The write-up also contained a note about any kind of margin of error. "While recontacting studies can help answer important questions of whether individuals are changing their minds, this study is not necessarily representative of the entire electorate. It is not possible to calculate a conventional margin of sampling error. And while all surveys have sources of error beyond sampling, such as nonresponse bias, this study in particular may be more likely than the typical Times/Siena poll to overrepresent the most politically engaged voters," it read. 

As a reminder, the previous May poll showed Trump leading with registered voters in the battleground states of Pennsylvania by +3 (47-44 percent), Arizona by +7 (49-42 percent), Michigan by +7 (49-42 percent), Georgia by +10 (49-39 percent), and Nevada by +12 (50-38). Biden led Wisconsin by +2 (47-45 percent). 

Per RealClearPolling, Trump is still leading in all of those states, plus North Carolina as well, by an overall average of +3.1. It will definitely be a close and competitive election, though, as he's up by +0.1 in Wisconsin and by +0.3 in Michigan. 

A Quinnipiac University poll out of the Georgia, one of Trump's better battleground states, still shows him leading Biden by +5 in a head to head matchup (49-44 percent), and by +6 when other candidates are factored in (43-37 percent).