Former and potentially future President Donald Trump and his campaign have been going for something of a bold strategy, in that they think states such as Virginia, and perhaps even New York and New Jersey could be in play. Another blue state that the Trump campaign is hopeful about is Minnesota. While Democrats have mocked such hopes, the poll numbers suggest it's not a completely outlandish idea.
Overall, the race is close between Trump and President Joe Biden. Democrats are sincerely hoping for Trump to be convicted in the hush money case brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, despite there being a whole host of problems with the charges. Namely, it's a real head scratcher as to what crime was actually committed.
Polls show, however, the trial isn't having too much of an impact, at least when it comes to Minnesota. Earlier this week, KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA released their poll showing Biden with only a slight lead. In fact, he's in "a virtual dead heat," a write-up from KSTP revealed, the headline also blaring "KSTP/SurveyUSA poll: 'Hush money' trial leaves no impact on presidential race in Minnesota."
"According to our latest KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA poll, Biden leads Trump 44% to 42%, the identical result from our last poll in April just before the trial started," the write-up mentions.
Not only does the poll show Biden with 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent, which is not an outlier, but that there are slightly more Democrats than Republican respondents in the poll, at 39 percent and 35 percent, respectively. The survey also included 22 percent of Independents.
It turns out that the Trump campaign has reason to believe Minnesota could be in play. "This race is close," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier is quoted as saying. "It has been for several months. It’s come as a surprise, I think, to a lot of people in national politics. The Trump campaign now sees Minnesota as a real likely target for victory in the 2024 election."
Biden and Trump are virtually tied among holding onto support from members of their own party, with 88 percent of Democrats supporting Biden and 87 percent of Republicans supporting Trump. They're also tied among Independents, at 36 percent each.
The poll was conducted May 8-11 and included 825 adults from the state of Minnesota, with 710 identified as being registered to vote, and 625 identified as likely to vote in November. The margin of error is at plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Should Trump be convicted, though, the dynamic changes. He still holds onto most of his support in Minnesota, and zero voters would change their vote to Biden. But, in what is a close and competitive election nationwide and in individual states, the retained support may not be enough. It's no wonder Democrats are so desperate.
As the write-up also noted:
We asked registered and likely voters who say they support Trump if their support would shift away from him if he’s found guilty. According to the poll, 88% said they would still vote for Trump. Zero percent would shift to Biden and 5% would consider shifting to another candidate.
Although that last number is small, Schier says it could have a big impact in a very tight race.
“A conviction in this trial could be a real problem for Trump,” Schier says. “It could make the difference between a narrow victory and narrow defeat in Minnesota.”
Highlighting explosive testimonies from porn star Stormy Daniels and former Trump attorney and perjurer Michael Cohen, the local news TV report also mentioned it "has had no discernible impact on the 2024 race in Minnesota."
NEW POLL: Democrats' sham trial against President Trump "has had no discernible impact on the 2024 race in Minnesota" — with President Trump and Biden still "essentially tied" in the state. pic.twitter.com/0EJD5gnG86
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 14, 2024
How significant would it be for Trump to win Minnesota in 2024? Going back to 1932, the North Star State has voted for the Republican nominee only three times: 1952, 1956, and 1972. In 2020, Biden won Minnesota's 10 electoral votes with 52.4 percent of the vote to Trump's 45.3 percent. The race was much closer in 2016 and in 2000.
It's not merely local outlets reporting on their polls that is leading to discussion about Minnesota being in play.
On Friday, POLITICO's Burgess Everett posted about Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) mocking Trump's hopes for winning Minnesota, noting he was "grasping at straws" and that he "said the same thing in 2020." If we go by how close Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's margin of victory Minnesota was in 2016, Trump emerging victorious in 2020 doesn't seem too far-fetched.
Democrats stifling a laugh at Trump's move to contest Minnesota and Virginia
— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) May 17, 2024
Minn Sen. Smith: “Grasping at straws ... Trump said the same thing in 2020"
Va. Sen. Warner cracked that Trump should pour his resources into Va.https://t.co/eJn7BIBbCE@natalie_allison @adamwren
As the report mentioned further, Trump will be there on Friday night, to headline the Minnesota GOP’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul.
Here's where Minnesota Republicans stand on those chances:
Even Republicans in Minnesota are skeptical.
“Minnesota is a blue state,” said Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party. “On a good day for Republicans, it can be a little bit of Vikings purple.”
But neither are they without hope. Trump is running ahead of Biden in swing state general election polls, and if Trump can replicate his 2016 performance, when he lost the state by fewer than 45,000 votes, he could at least put a scare into Democrats.
On Friday afternoon, the POLITICO PM Playbook contained the headline of how "Trump’s Minnesota dream might not be fantasy." Playbook not only mentioned the piece above, but coverage from The New York Times' as well on how "Trump Visits Minnesota, Hoping Its Political Divide Will Put It in Play."
That report speaks to more confidence:
Republicans in the state insist 2024 is their year.
“Minnesotans are hard-working, blue-collar Midwesterners, and they are being crushed by the policies of this administration,” said Representative Pete Stauber, a Republican who in 2018 flipped a Democratic seat that covers a vast swath of Northeast Minnesota, including its iron range. “Those 10 electoral votes are going to go to President Donald Trump.”
Some Democrats are worried. Representative Dean Phillips, a Democrat who represents the affluent, educated suburbs west of Minneapolis that for years voted Republican, then switched to him, said he had been surprised by the number of constituents he has spoken to who are ready to vote for Mr. Trump. Mr. Phillips challenged Mr. Biden for the Democratic nomination and got nowhere. Now he wants to see the president re-elected.
“I don’t think Trump would be spending his precious time coming to that event, in the Twin Cities mind you, if his campaign didn’t have some good internal numbers,” Mr. Phillips said.
No Republican has won a statewide election since 2006, but the Democratic winning streak does not capture the complicated dynamics of a state where the urban core, Minneapolis-St. Paul and its suburbs, has grown sharply in population and noticeably leftward, while rural Minnesota has moved to the right.
...
Recent polling has Mr. Biden clinging to a narrow lead in Minnesota, inside some polls’ margins of error. His tenuous position has been exacerbated by the war in Gaza. A protest campaign for “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary in March drew 19 percent.
“We have a real opportunity to expand the map here,” Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump campaign adviser, told The Associated Press ahead of Mr. Trump’s visit.
Even Democrats in the state have their worries.
“In the end, I don’t really think Minnesota will be in play, in part because when the contrast between a completely unhinged Donald Trump and Biden crystallizes toward the end of the campaign, disaffected and undecided voters here will turn out for President Biden,” said Jim Manley, a Democratic political consultant who lives in Minneapolis. “But it’s going to be too close for comfort.”
Mr. Phillips said, “I confess to have spoken to more people, and some remarkable people, who say they will vote for Trump. Many will, and many more than will admit it.”
There's potentially further trouble for Democrats at the state level. That analyst, Schier, is quoted in another local news write-up with regards to polling on state races, with that piece highlighting how "KSTP/SurveyUSA: MN House Republicans have slight edge in 2024 races."
That same poll conducted May 8-11 revealed that 45 percent of respondents will likely vote for a Republican, while 43 percent say a Democrat, 4 percent prefer other candidates, and 8 percent are undecided. Democrats had an advantage in January.
"There is leakage amongst independents and suburbanites away from the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party]. If the Republicans are ever going to take the state House, they need to do well with those two groups, and right now, they’re making progress," Schier is quoted as saying.
Another write-up highlighted rideshare options in Minnesota. As we covered earlier on Friday, state Democrats are still looking to regulate rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft, which have threatened to leave as a result.