Tipsheet

U.S. Senate Race in Maryland Continues to Look Better and Better for Larry Hogan

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  April 02, 2024 5:30 PM

We've covered before how Maryland is considered a bright blue state, though that could change when it comes to the 2024 U.S. Senate race. When Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin announced his retirement for 2024, forecasters considered the race for his replacement to be a "Safe" or "Solid Democrat." But then, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan announced that he was running, and the forecast changed to "Likely Democratic." Not only has Hogan's previous electoral success been on his side, but so have the polls for this 2024 U.S. Senate race.

On Tuesday, Goucher College released a poll showing that Hogan has a slight lead against Democratic Rep. David Trone, but is also ahead of Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. 

Against Trone, Hogan has a slight edge of 43-42 percent, while he has a lead of 44-40 percent against Alsobrooks. 

The poll was conducted March 19-24 with 800 registered Maryland voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Hogan is thus statistically tied with Trone but enjoys a comfortable enough lead over Alsobrooks to be outside the margin of error. The poll also included an oversampling of Democratic voters, with 408 Democratic likely voters.

Among those Democratic likely voters, Trone leads Alsobrooks 42-33 percent.

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"Governor Hogan is humbled by the support from across the political spectrum. They know he has a record of working for all Marylanders, regardless of political affiliation. As the underdog in this race, he will continue to focus on fixing the broken politics of Washington," said Hogan campaign spokesperson Blake Kernen in a statement for Townhall.

Hogan has also been using the Democratic primary to his own advantage, as a Fox News report from earlier on Tuesday highlighted.

With a 63 percent favorable rating, Hogan is the only candidate where a majority of respondents say they view him favorably. That includes 57 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of Hogan's fellow Republicans, and 77 percent of Independents. A plurality, at 43 percent, view Trone favorably. While a majority of Trone's fellow Democrats (52 percent) view him favorably, it's nevertheless telling that that's not quite as high as the 57 percent who say they have a favorable view of Hogan. A plurality of voters, at 40 percent, say they don't know enough about Alsobrooks, though a plurality of Democrats (47 percent) have a favorable view of her.

Regardless as to if he faces Trone or Alsobrooks in November, Hogan enjoys more unified support from Republican voters (76 percent or 73 percent), while he earns 25 percent from Democratic voters if Alsobrooks is the nominee and 24 percent if Trone is. He also has a lead over Independent voters in both match-ups, with 63-19 when facing Alsobrooks, and 59-27 when facing Trone.

Even without the Maryland race in play, the 2024 Senate map looks to be rather favorable to Republicans, especially in comparison to the 2022 elections. This is with regards to both the seats Republicans are defending and looking to pick up. Further, even if Maryland ultimately looks to favor Democrats, Hogan making it a more competitive race will also force Democrats to spend money where they might not have expected to.