Regarding the 2024 Senate map, we've got three "Toss-Up" races that are really the ones to watch: Arizona, Ohio, and Montana. While we don't know if Kyrsten Sinema, now an Independent, will run for reelection in Arizona, vulnerable Democratic incumbents Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana are. Ohio and Montana, especially, have only gotten more red since these two men were first elected. While whichever party gains the majority of the Senate could come down those two seats, they're not the only ones in play. And many other seats look good for Republicans, too, both those they are looking to pick up and defend.
The Hill on Wednesday, which put out a great analysis piece last year about which seats could flip, put out a piece detailing, "GOP chances of winning the Senate on the rise," noting such increased chances represent "a remarkable shift" from 2022. While some forecasters predicted that Republicans would win back control of the Senate, they ultimately fell short, especially as retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania was replaced by Democratic Sen. John Fetterman.
The piece also mentions what could have been a messy Senate primary race in Montana before Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale suspended his campaign after only six days, and in Maryland, where, as we highlighted last week, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan's entrance into the race means the seat could actually be in play.
But those are only two races, and Maryland isn't even a major one in play, even with Hogan tilting it from "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." As The Hill continued:
Even before those developments, the GOP looked like the favorite to take back the Senate.
Democrats are defending 23 seats this cycle, including in red states such as Montana, West Virginia and Ohio, where Trump, the likely GOP presidential nominee, is expected to coast to a victory over President Biden.
In West Virginia, incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) announced his retirement last year, all but securing the seat for the GOP.
...
Republican strategists are growing more and more bullish about their odds.
“This is a really good map that Republicans know they have to take advantage of, not only because of the electoral atmospherics, but because they generally don’t line up this way,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
...
The presidential contest also has Republicans feeling optimistic about the Senate.
While a likely race between Trump and Biden remains a coin toss, a number of polls have shown Trump with an edge both nationally and in key swing states such as Michigan.
Trump leads Biden 44.4 percent to 41.7 percent in the average of national polls maintained by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. In Michigan, Trump has a 2.6 point lead over Biden in The Hill/DDHQ average. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 2.8 point lead in the same average.
Democratic Senate candidates can still win races in such an atmosphere, but it potentially provides additional pathways for the GOP to get to the majority or grow it.
The piece, worth reading in its entirety, notes how the Republican Party could still screw this up. That's always the case, especially for the GOP and especially after 2022. One concern is the effect Donald Trump could have by being on the ballot, although that could actually be a benefit, as the excerpt above mentions. The political landscape could also improve for President Joe Biden. Republicans could also find myriad other reasons to blow their chances, and that includes getting too cocky.
That piece from The Hill published in January of last year noted eight seats likely to flip:
Arizona: A "Toss-Up" race, where Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is running against Republican Kari Lake, making for a fired-up race regardless of what Sinema does.
Michigan: A "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic" race, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring.
Montana: A "Toss-Up" race, where Tim Sheehy is running to challenge Tester. Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace and a former Navy SEAL, has already been endorsed by Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).
Nevada: A "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic" race, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection.
Ohio: A "Toss-Up" race, where businessman Bernie Moreno, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and state Sen. Matt Dolan are all running to challenge Brown. While the NRSC will stay out of this primary, Trump endorsed Moreno last December.
Pennsylvania: A race regarded differently by various forecasters who seem to favor incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., although Republican Dave McCormick looks to have a clear field in challenging him.
West Virginia: Now even more favored for Republicans as a "Safe" or "Solid Republican" seat after Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced last November he wouldn't be seeking reelection.
Wisconsin: A "Lean Democratic" seat, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running for reelection. Just earlier this week, Republican Eric Hovde announced his campaign.
There are seats that Democrats are targeting, though, in this case, Florida, where first-term Republican Sen. Rick Scott is running for reelection, and Texas, where Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is also running for reelection. Scott's and Cruz's seats are regarded by forecasters as "Likely Republican." Nevertheless, Cruz has been fundraising off his seat and is a top target for Democrats, which he mentions in his media appearances.
I am the Democrats’ number one target. George Soros is sending millions to Texas, so I am grateful for all the patriots who go to https://t.co/YBcXsU0WHE to help me fight back and keep standing for the rule of law and the Constitution. pic.twitter.com/ldA7pG02xI
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) February 18, 2024
In addition to those eight seats above that could go Republicans' way – some more than others – CNN, at the start of this year, also mentioned the Florida and Texas races as seats most likely to fit.
Other forecasts show Republicans likely to take back the Senate in 2024, including Race to the WH showing a 55.6. percent chance with its Senate forecast with a projected 52 seats and 270towin showing a predicted 50 seats for Republicans.