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Here's Where Americans Stand on the Mess of a Speaker's Race

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 19, 2023 9:00 AM

It's now been over two weeks without a Speaker of the House. Eight Republicans joined all House Democrats to oust Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to vacate the chair earlier this month. It's a pretty chaotic time to be without the speaker, given the need to avert a government shutdown once the continuing resolution (CR) expires, and because the House isn't able to do much when it comes to helping Israel. House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) is presently the Republican nominee. It was House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) for a hot minute, but he withdrew before the House could even vote on his nomination when it was clear he didn't have the votes. Jordan has not only lost two rounds of votes, he has actually lost votes.

Given what we know between the second and third rounds of votes, and information often changes quickly, Jordan is likely to lose even more votes when the next round occurs. That may be because Republican defectors are quite angry, it turns out, and so are spreading out their "no" votes. 

Curiously, Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), a Jordan ally who chairs the House Freedom Caucus that Jordan was a co-founder of, had already forewarned of Jordan losing more support ahead of the second vote, and before CNN's Melanie Zanona made her post above. 

So, as of early Thursday morning, this is where the situation currently stands. Republicans continue to be in disarray. Democrats already have House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) nominated, and it's unlikely that they'll ever vote for a Republican candidate, certainly not Jordan, and who knows if they will when it comes to a compromise candidate we keep hearing about. If anyone votes for one, it'll likely be Republicans, despite how they're the party in the majority. Democratic members have even cracked jokes and posted memes about the chaos, and who could really blame them?

What do the American people think, though? This week's poll from TheEconomist/YouGov took a look at that.

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Americans overall are slightly more likely to approve of ousting McCarthy, by 37 percent to 32 percent. A plurality of Republicans, at 43 percent, however, now say they disapprove of removing McCarthy. 

It's worth mentioning that a poll from earlier this month showed Republicans more likely to support McCarthy's ouster. Now they're singing a different tune, perhaps because of all the chaos and how it makes the party look.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) nominated Jordan during Wednesday's vote. He did not mince words about many topics, including McCarthy's ouster, a move he and Jordan both opposed. 

Referring to his remarks from earlier this month on the House floor in defense of McCarthy holding onto his position, Cole pointed out, "I made the remark that those who did this, whether intentionally or unintentionally, were going to put the Congress into the state of chaos and the country into a state of uncertainty. I think that the last two weeks have vindicated that observation." He spoke of selecting Jordan as speaker as "a chance... to end that chaos and to end that uncertainty."

The poll also asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who they wanted as the speaker. A plurality, 37 percent, said Jordan. The only other candidate with support in the double digits was former and potentially future President Donald Trump, who came in second with 12 percent. Although Trump's name had briefly been floated, he endorsed Jordan early on. 

These respondents were also asked if they preferred a speaker who "sticks to their principles" as opposed to one who "comprises." By double digits, of respondents who chose Jordan, a plurality preferred the former, with 46 percent saying so, compared to 29 percent choosing the latter. 

In his nominating speech, Cole emphasized throughout that Jordan "was a person of absolute integrity," "an honorable man," as well as "not exactly a shrinking violet" and "not a shy person." He also spoke to how Jordan has "a spine of steel" and "that kind of determination" as well as "that kind of character" to be the speaker, something of a thankless prospect in many ways given how drawn out the process has been. 

Americans don't know how long it will take to select a new speaker, but those who do have some idea don't seem hopeful it will be a quick process. A plurality, 34 percent, say they're not sure how long it'll take. Then there's the 22 percent who think it'll take 1-2 weeks. Just 9 percent were optimistic enough to think it would take less than a week. Republican respondents are evenly split between those who think it'll take 1-2 weeks and those who aren't sure, with 27 percent selecting each response.

With all that is going on in the world, it's hardly surprising that just 5 percent of overall respondents think that being without a speaker is "helping the U.S. government's ability to function," while 51 percent say it's "hurting." Twenty-three percent are not sure, and 21 percent don't think it's having an effect. The numbers are even more pronounced regarding registered voters, with 58 percent saying it's "hurting" and 4 percent saying it's "helping."

Just 4 percent of Republicans think that being without a speaker is "helping," yet it is Republican members who won't unify behind a Republican candidate for speaker when it comes to voting on the House floor. 

Given all of this going on while Republicans are still in control of the House, it's also no wonder that a majority, 51 percent, think Democrats are more united. The number is even higher for registered voters, as 57 percent think as much. The percentage that thinks Republicans are more united is pitifully low, with 16 percent of all respondents and 15 percent of registered voters saying as much. While a strong majority of Democratic voters, 79 percent, say their party is more united, it's only a plurality of Republicans who say as much about their party, 40 percent.

The poll was conducted October 14-17 with 1,500 Americans, including 1,296 registered voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent. 

One way for despondent Republicans to look at it, though, as Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) posted, is that Jeffries lost his bid to become speaker for the 17th time.