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Is the 2024 Republican Nomination Now a Three-Person Race?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 05, 2023 9:30 AM

The narrative for 2024 has been, and in many ways continues to be, that former and potentially future President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. We could very likely see next year's presidential election be a rematch of 2020 between Trump and current President Joe Biden. If there's anyone who could beat Trump, it was maybe going to be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is currently in a distant second place in the polls, and the only one with double digit support at the national level. Trump still remains over 40 points ahead. Then again, it may still be early yet, and another candidate may be emerging as a likely nominee. 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has now replaced Vivek Ramaswamy for third place, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages. Trump's at 56.5 percent, while DeSantis has 13.5 percent support, Haley is at 7.4 percent, and Ramaswamy is at 5.3 percent.

Trump has spent so much time and energy attacking DeSantis, his closest rival. Following last Wednesday's debate, though, during which Haley had many viral moments, he turned his ire towards the former governor, who had also served as the ambassador to the United Nations during his administration. 

On Friday morning, Trump sent out a TruthSocial post that began by noting "MAGA, or I, will never go for Birdbrain Nikki Haley."

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Then, on Sunday, Haley posted that the Trump campaign had sent her a birdcage and bird seed, along with a note of who it was from.

The special delivery produced positive news coverage for Haley. On Monday, the New York Post put out an editorial, "Trump’s lame and harebrained 'Birdbrain' bullying of Nikki Haley," which The Hill reported on that same day. 

"Say what you will about the Donald’s third run at the presidency, but the guy’s losing his once-fearsome nicknaming powers," the editorial mentioned early on. This comes as they approved of the past nicknames Trump has used, including and especially "Low Energy Jeb" Bush and "Crooked Hillary."

But, as the editorial mentions toward the end, the move helps Haley:

But the peeved-grandma tone of “Birdbrain” proves he’s slipping. 

Haley is anything but: calm and effective, with a sound grasp of policy. 

She was at least arguably the winner of the first two GOP debates, no easy task for a woman dealing with a pack of shouting men.

That’s why the more GOP voters see of her, the more they like her.

NewsNation's Chris Stirewalt had particularly harsh words for the move. "Leaving weird, menacing gifts outside of women’s hotel rooms is a no. That’s a no. You don’t do that. Whether it's your rival or not. It’s creepy, it’s inappropriate, and I think for a lot of women in the Republican Party, that’s just not—that’s not a cool thing to do," Stirewalt shared.

Haley has continued to do well since last week's second debate, including with the special delivery that followed. In their list of winners from last Wednesday night, not long after the debate aired, The Washington Post included Nikki Haley at the top of the list. As their reasoning read in part:

The strength of Haley’s initial debate performance was dealing directly with issues and looking like a serious candidate who could appeal to all parts of the party. And while she may have had a bit less impact on Wednesday night than she did in the first debate, she mostly did it again.

...

Haley gained the most from the first debate by being a studied candidate who demonstrated broad appeal —  by not alienating Trump-backing voters. She probably maintained that advantage and inched closer to possibly one day replacing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the leading, actually somewhat viable, Trump alternative.

This success includes in polling, as mentioned above with the RCP averages. The New York Times noted on Wednesday that "Trump Targets Nikki Haley as She Climbs in the Polls." According to the report, Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney called the birdcage stunt "weird, creepy and desperate," also adding "It’s more proof that it’s time to leave the drama behind."

Trump suddenly paying attention to Haley comes after the Times report also noted that the former president has been "mostly silent" on Haley's position in the race since she entered in February.

"After two strong debate performances, Ms. Haley has seen a jolt of momentum, and in polls of the early voting states New Hampshire and South Carolina, she has leapfrogged Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida as the runner-up to Mr. Trump," the report mentioned early on, citing another article from the Times about Haley's status of second place in New Hampshire.

RCP averages currently show Trump up with 45 percent in New Hampshire, but Haley is indeed in second place, with 14.2 percent support compared to DeSantis' 10.4 percent. This comes after a USA Today/Suffolk poll was released showing her with 19 percent support, with the write-up focusing on how "Nikki Haley vaults to second place in New Hampshire in new GOP primary poll."

She's also in second place in her home state of South Carolina, with 15.3 percent compared to Trump's 47.8 percent. DeSantis is again in third place, with 11.3 percent. A Winthrop poll was also recently released showing Haley with 17 percent support. The poll's write-up noted that "Haley is viewed as more favorable than Trump among all South Carolina voters," though he is with Republican voters, which makes sense, given his commanding lead. Haley's second place status does not appear to be insignificant, though.

"We continue to see Trump's dominance for the nomination in South Carolina. While a distant second, support for Nikki Haley has grown. Haley's rise coincides with the continued slide of Ron DeSantis with his drop in national polls being mirroed in South Carolina," Winthrop Poll Director Scott Huffmon is quoted as saying.

This all comes after a CNN poll from last month showed Haley beating President Joe Biden by the strongest margin of any of the Republican candidates, 49 percent to 43 percent, outside the margin of error.

DeSantis has had his own hopeful news as well in the past few days, as his campaign highlights how they're in the "comeback" stage since restructuring over the summer. A press release on Wednesday morning revealed that DeSantis had raised $15 million in the third quarter between his campaign committee, leadership PAC, and joint fundraising committee. 

"Anyone that knows Ron DeSantis knows that he is a fighter, a winner, and a leader," offered campaign manager James Uthmeier. "This significant fundraising haul not only provides us with the resources we need in the fight for Iowa and beyond, but it also shuts down the doubters who counted out Ron DeSantis for far too long. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate with the vision to reverse America’s decline and the track record to prove he will get the job done. Thanks to the generous support of Americans looking for a leader who will deliver results, this campaign is built to last and win. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate in this race who can beat both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, revive our economy, secure the border, make America energy dominant, and end the weaponization of government once and for all," Uthmeier continued. 

Trump may also still be afraid of DeSantis, at least in Iowa. The press release also pointed to reports and posts from last month about how Trump is still spending in Iowa. "Trump Visits Iowa, Aiming to Halt Rivals by Stepping Up Appearances," read a headline from The New York Times on September 20. "Trump allies urge a wake-up call for his lagging Iowa campaign operation" was the headline for an NBC News exclusive report from September 8. 

DeSantis remains in second place in Iowa, with the RCP averages showing him with 16 percent, almost double Haley's 8.8 percent there. Trump leads with 49.2 percent support.

Further, polls have shown that Iowa voters may still be undecided, as we covered at the time about a CBS News poll from last week.