Tipsheet

Now Officially a Candidate, LaRose Continues to Lead in GOP Primary for Ohio Senate Seat

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  July 28, 2023 2:45 PM

Ohio remains one of the top Senate seats in 2024 to watch, as Republicans look to retire vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who officially declared earlier this month, continues to lead in the polls.

Before LaRose had entered the race, polls showed that many Ohio voters were undecided when it came to who they would select as the Republican nominee. LaRose still enjoyed more support than the two other declared candidates, Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan. This included polls conducted by Causeway Solutions for Leadership for Ohio Fund, which has supported LaRose's work as secretary of state, a role he has used to defend election integrity. LaRose has also raised money for the group, the Columbus Dispatch reported. 

Not long after LaRose declared his candidacy, Leadership for Ohio Fund released poll findings showing LaRose with 27.9 percent of the vote compared to Dolan's 11.1 percent and Moreno's 5 percent. Eighteen percent said someone else, and 39.8 percent were still undecided. 

A USA Today/Suffolk poll conducted July 9-12 also showed LaRose with 18.95 percent support in the primary, compared to Dolan's 13.68 percent support and 8.95 percent for Moreno. Over a majority, at 56.84 percent, still were undecided. 

Independent polls conducted after LaRose entered the race are also showing him in the lead. 

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On Friday, Ohio Northern University (ONU) released their poll showing that while a plurality, at 42.1 percent of voters, say that they are unsure, 32.1 percent would vote for LaRose. Dolan enjoys 17.8 percent support, whole Moreno has 7.3 percent support.

The LaRose War Room Twitter account also tweeted out the results to highlight how LaRose fared in support up against the two other declared candidates. 

LaRose has been speaking in favor of Amendment 1, which Ohioans will vote on in the August 8 special election. If passed, the state constitution would be amended to increase the voter approval threshold for new constitutional amendments to 60 percent in order to pass, as opposed to 50 percent plus 1. LaRose and others in favor of Amendment 1 have warned that without it, special interests groups can come from out-of-state to push liberal policies, like abortion.

Ohioans will vote on a ballot initiative in November known as the Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative, which could not only allow for unlimited abortion in the state, but also allow minors to access abortion and so-called gender affirming care--which is in reality genital mutilation and sterilization--without parental consent. 

The write-up on the ONU poll highlighted how voters are "closely divided" on Amendment 1, with a slight plurality in support. What the poll does not mention, however, is just how far-reaching the abortion initiative goes. 

"A proposed constitutional amendment in Ohio aims to protect an individual’s personal autonomy on matters such as contraception, abortion, and fertility treatment," respondents were told about the initiative, before being asked if they agreed or disagreed. A majority, at 53.8 percent, said, they agreed. 

In highlighting how anti-parental rights the initiative is at its core, Spencer pointed to some ramifications of passing the pro-abortion initiative:

...Instead, as legal experts warned at the time, the amendment goes "much further" than what its proponents claim, instead being a radical vehicle to prohibit "virtually any restrictions on abortion and all other procedures, including sex-change surgeries" that "would cancel out not only parental-consent laws but also mere parental notification for minors' abortions or sex-change surgeries" and "strike down health protections for people of all ages who undergo these procedures."

That is, the proposed amendment is as radical as they come, but it seems that's the entire goal.

The ONU poll was conducted July 17-26 with 675 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent. LaRose officially declared on the morning of July 17. 

The primary is still a little over seven months away, and Ohio voters currently remain undecided. So far though, whether declared or not, LaRose has led in the polls. Time will tell if he holds onto that momentum and can carry it into the general election. LaRose and others have maintained that having the name recognition his primary opponents do not have can help him win the general election.

The ONU poll shows Brown beating any of the three named primary challengers, in this case winning with 45 percent of the vote to LaRose's 32 percent. Dolan performs only slightly better than LaRose, losing with 33 percent to Brown's 45 percent. 

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) shared in an interview earlier this month with CBS News that the NRSC believes any one of the candidates can win the race, and so they are thus staying out of the primary.