Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has yet to decide whether or not he is running for reelection, but if he does, he may have some issues to overcome. A recent poll from Dan Jones & Associates found that a majority, at 51 percent, do not think Romney should run for reelection. Forty-seven percent think he should, while just 3 percent don't know. Nearly a majority, at 49 percent, somewhat or strongly disapprove of Romney's performance, including a plurality of 30 percent who disapprove "strongly." Forty-one percent approve of his performance.
Reporting from Desert News also pointed to the curious findings when it comes to how more Democrats than Romney's own fellow Republicans think he should run again. While 54 percent of Republicans think Romney should not run again, 55 percent of Democrats think he should.
The reporting offered some insight, through political science professors, as to why that might be and what that could mean for Romney's reelection efforts, should he run again.
Professor Josh Ryan at Utah State University thinks "these polls likely underestimate his strength," offering, "in my mind, he’s still favored to win reelection." He had also pointed to how "Mitt Romney has sought a more moderate path, and in the process may have alienated himself from the most conservative voters."
Professor John McCrain at the University of Utah pointed to the "unusual course" Romney has run as senator, referring to him as "an equal opportunity offender." He also offered that when it comes to how "the overall congressional approbating rating has been so low for so long (20% roughly), it is dragging down ratings for individual incumbents more than had been the case historically."
Speaking of his 41 percent approval rating, Professor Michael Lyons at Utah State University said it's "no longer, necessarily, an invitation to retire." However, he did point to his beef with former and potentially future President Donald Trump as a potential issue, and that those struggles "could easily splinter convention opposition to Romney and land him in a primary."
Romney made history when for Trump's first impeachment trial in January of 2020, he became the first senator to vote to convict a president of his own party. He also voted to convict Trump at his second impeachment trial in 2021, with that Senate trial not even taking place until Trump had already left office and Joe Biden was serving as president.
Voting to impeach Trump almost resulted in Romney being censured by the Utah GOP. Although the vote ultimately failed, Romney was memorably booed during his remarks at the 2021 convention. He was also not long after censured by the Weber County GOP.
.@UTGOPChair just had to intervene and tell the crowd to show respect.
— Ben Winslow (@BenWinslow) May 1, 2021
It has now turned to heckling as @SenatorRomney tries to continue with his speech. @fox13 #utpol #utgop
Romney also sounded very much like a Democrat when calling Trump out in a statement from last Friday in light of the second indictment. "Mr. Trump brought these charges upon himself by not only taking classified documents, but by refusing to simply return them when given numerous opportunities to do so," he claimed. "These allegations are serious and if proven, would be consistent with his other actions offensive to the national interest, such as withholding defensive weapons from Ukraine for political reasons and failing to defend the Capitol from violent attack and insurrection."
The poll was conducted May 22-June 1 and included 798 Utah voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
Romney filed paperwork with the FEC back in April, as the Desert News also reported, and earlier this month gave a timeline for the summer or fall as to when he would announce his intentions. "I am doing what I’ve got to do to make sure that if I decide to run again, I’ll win. So I’m raising money, I put together a team and keeping my options open," Romney offered.
Last month, Romney got his first official primary challenger with Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs. In April, Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson announced he was forming an exploratory committee to consider such a challenge. Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes had also expressed interest in March of last year.
Given how red Utah is and the power of incumbency, Romney is certain to win the general if he wins his primary, which is also likely. Nevertheless, it's still something the senator might want to keep in mind as he plans his next move.
Mike Lee, Utah's other Republican senator, handily won reelection last November by nearly 14 points against Independent Evan McMullin. He did so without any help from Romney, though, since Romney considered both Lee and McMullin to be friends, and thus withheld an endorsement.