Tipsheet

Alarm Bells: New Polls Show Trump Down Ten in PA, Six in NC

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  October 04, 2016 3:05 PM

I know what some of you are thinking: Oh great, another negative polling post from Benson, a known 'Never Trump' traitor. He's just gleefully spiking the football because he wants to be proven right about Trump's electability. As Trump would say: "Wrong." My anti-Hillary bona fides are well established, and I've written up plenty of pro-Trump polling, too. It's simply an inescapable fact that with five weeks to go until the election -- and with early voting already underway in many places -- Trump's poor debate performance and resulting flailing is taking a real toll on his standing in the race. We ran through some of the troubling new state polling last evening, and the numbers haven't gotten any better today. As I've been saying, with Colorado and Virginia again looking like real long shots at this point, the GOP ticket needs to focus on carrying Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump has relinquished his lead in the former state (without which he simply cannot win), and things are looking bleaker in the latter -- even though it was widely believed that Trump was uniquely positioned to compete in the Keystone State. Yikes:

Trump's slippage in this survey has been driven by white voters, especially white women.  Thus, a daunting ten-point deficit in the Monmouth data, coupled with a Franklin and Marshall poll putting him down by nine in Pennsylvania.  In both polls, Clinton's favorability has ticked up, while Trump's unfavorability has risen to a toxic 60 percent.  Meanwhile, in North Carolina:

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Several people have pointed out that the partisan sample in this poll is D+11, which is far out of step with the state's D+6 electorate in 2012, so "unskew" away if you're so inclined.  I tend to agree that this sample smells a little ripe, but even if you remove this poll completely from the mix, Hillary has still regained the lead in the Tar Heel State. Gulp. Two more data points:

Unless you're wearing blinders, there's little question that Trump needs a bounce-back debate victory this weekend to shift the momentum.  I'll leave you with our Kelly File discussion of the "kitchen sink" attacks being leveled by both sides over the home stretch: